COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on ideas that the Monday rally was overdone. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather recently and now some big rains moving through the region, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 68.30, 67.50, and 66.30 December, with resistance of 73.00, 74.00 and 75.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Futures posted a reversal to down on the weekly charts last week as forecasts call for limited tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this or next week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida but one is headed for the Texas-Louisiana border area. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry. Ideas are that demand haws suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 468.00, 453.00, and 439.00 November, with resistance at a 492.00, 506.00, and 512.00 NovemberCOFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher after moving lower earlier in the day. More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential supported the rally. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is very dry in Brazil right now.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is now 255.22 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 251.00, 246.00, and 242.00 December, and resistance is at 271.00, 276.00 and 282.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4910, 4750, and 4710 November, with resistance at 5490, 5550, and 5600 November.SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on more reports of burning crops in Brazil. One company said it had lost 10% of its production in the fires. Chinese demand is a problem amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil to help promote an active harvest period. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1810 March and resistance is at 2100, 2170, and 2220 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 518.00, 509.00, and 505.00 December, with resistance at 538.00, 541.00, and 548.00 December.COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7940, 8240, and 8550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.More By This Author:Grains Report – Tuesday, Sep. 17Softs Report – Thursday, Sept 12Softs Report – Friday, Aug. 30
