Not as of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.
Note that 2023Q4 value added was higher than in 2021Q4. Unfortunately, we don’t have data further than 2024Q1 (these data will be reported by on 9/27).The data in support of a slowdown in manufacturing comes from diffusion indices, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Source: TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&P, gray is ISM.More By This Author:Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) The World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”GDPNow At 3% For Q3
