On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought.Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this.October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is down, that may be a good opportunity.Q4 +5.5%Since 1950, there have been 20 occurrences with 17 or 85% closing Q4 positively. 1979, 1983 and 2012 were the losers.Iran attacked Israel yesterday. Israel will likely respond, but probably not over Rosh Hashanah which begins at sundown. Oil jumped, but nothing out of the realm of normalcy. This helps Russia and hurts China. Markets do not seem to care much, at least not yet.A quick comment on the VP debate. It was refreshing to see two gentlemen agree to disagree and sometimes agree, debate policy, respect each other, shake hands and chat at the end. The country won the debate. It won’t change the election and has no bearing on the markets.On Monday we bought QQQW, PCY and more UWM. We sold some XRT, some EIFAX, some LBDNX, some SVARX and some DXHYX. On Tuesday we bought NOCT, KOCT, EMB, more PCY, more UWM and more RYOCX.More By This Author:Here Comes Big Bad OctoberWeakest Week Of The Year Is Here – Fed WrongA Look At The Last 35 Years Of New Cutting Cycles
