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High-Yield Credit Has Delivered Strong Returns, with Less Volatility than EquitiesOver the past several years, high-yield bonds have delivered impressive returns, outperforming most other sectors of the fixed income market.
Fixed Income Performance: 9/30/22–9/25/24 (Annualized)
Sources: WisdomTree, FactSet, as of 9/25/24. High-Yield Corporates represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index. Core
Fixed Income represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Preferreds represented by the ICE BofA Diversified Core U.S. Preferred
Securities Index. Investment-Grade Corporates represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index. Treasuries represented by the
Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index. TIPS represented by the ICE BofA U.S. Inflation-Linked Treasury Index. You cannot invest directly in an
index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
This strong performance can be attributed to several key factors, including healthy investor demand, limited net new supply, robust corporate issuer fundamentals and historically low default rates.Additionally, despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties, high-yield returns and credit spreads (the excess yield offered over Treasuries) have shown remarkable resilience and relatively low volatility.
Rolling Volatility of High-Yield Credit vs. Investment-Grade, Equities
Sources: WisdomTree, FactSet, as of 9/25/24. Based on one-year rolling standard deviation of monthly returns. High-Yield Corporates
represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. Investment-Grade Corporates represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate
Bond Index. U.S. Equities represented by the S&P 500 Index. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of
future returns.
We Remain Constructive on Higher-Quality High-Yield Credit
While the spreads on high-yield bonds have now compressed to relatively low levels, we maintain a constructive outlook on the higher-quality segment of the high-yield market. Here’s why:
By focusing on higher-quality issuers, investors can benefit from the attractive risk-adjusted returns and income offered in high yield, while also mitigating some of the risks associated with lower-rated debt.
Not All “High-Quality” Strategies Are Created Equal
One popular way for investors to access the higher-quality portion of the high-yield universe is through “fallen angel” strategies. These strategies target bonds that were previously rated investment grade but have since been downgraded to high yield.However, after a period of limited issuer migration, the risk of fallen angels has surged this quarter, particularly due to Boeing’s $57 billion in outstanding bonds, which are under review for possible downgrade by Moody’s.
Notional Value of BBB- Bonds on Downgrade Watch from At Least One of Three Main Rating Agencies
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
While fallen angels may offer enticing yields, the prospects of a Boeing downgrade could dramatically increase the issuer concentration risk in these strategies, some of which have issuer caps as high as 10%!Given the risks associated with issuer concentration in fallen angel strategies, we suggest that investors consider a broader approach to the high-yield market. Rather than relying solely on credit rating history, we believe it’s prudent to use strategies that systematically identify fundamentally strong issuers across the market.In summary, the high-yield bond market continues to present a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking strong returns with lower volatility than equities. With careful issuer selection and a focus on quality, investors can still find attractive opportunities in today’s market environment.More By This Author:Super Micro Computer: Down Like The Hindenburg Navigating Earnings Season: In The Middle Of The MuddleThe Yield Curve “Un-”Inverts, Well Sort of
