Data from the BLS Household Survey, chart by Mish
Private vs Government Employment Notes
The numbers don’t total correctly.The BLS explains: “Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.“A hat tip to ZeroHedge for pointing out the surge in government employment.You can also see the recent surge in BLS Table A-8.From January 1948 though December 1997, the numbers did total correctly. They haven’t ever since.The same thing applies to agricultural vs nonagricultural breakdowns.
Change in Employment Level Agricultural and Nonagricultural 
In September, the change in agricultural employment was -60,000 vs a rise of 527,000 nonagricultural employment. That nets to 467,000. The BLS reports 430,000.
Change in Government Employment Since 1948 
Unemployment Rate MathBecause of the way the BLS makes its calculations, one cannot directly calculate (at least properly) the precise impact those government jobs had on the unemployment rate (UR).However, we can show various unemployment rates based on employment level (EL) and Labor Force (LF) numbers.The reported employment level in September was 161,864,000. That is up from 161,434,000 an increase of 430,000. The labor force is 168,699,000.UR = ((LF – EL) / LF) * 100UR = ((168,699-161,864)/168,699) * 100 = 4.051 which the BLS rounded to 4.1 percent.If you keep the Labor Force constant you can calculate various Unemployment Rates by changing the Employment Level.For example, if we assume the employment level was flat not +430,000 we can arrive at the following:UR = ((168,699-161,434)/168,699) * 100 = 4.306 which the BLS would have rounded to 4.3 percent.And if you believe this is all bogus nonsense gone haywire, then keep the Labor Force at 168,699,000 and plug in your own employment level based off the lead chart.
Establishment Survey Numbers 
The Establishment Survey suggests we added 31,000 government jobs not 785,000 jobs. This is one area the BLS is likely sampling correctly.
A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job RevisionsOn August 22, I gave A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Yesterday morning, I had difficulty finding the BLS job revisions. So did everyone else. Eventually the BLS posted -818,000 but my unadjusted calc of -915,000 is accurate too.
That 818,000 revision was to the Establishment Survey. The BLS birth-death model and/or small business sampling has gone haywire.But if there is one thing the BLS is sampling correctly, that would be government jobs.
The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected in SeptemberOn October 4, I noted The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected in SeptemberThe BLS reports payroll employment rises by 254,000 in September. I discussed two reasons the report is suspect.This report provides a third source of likely error.
Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Five MonthsAlso see my ADP report Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Five Months
ADP data shows small businesses with 1-49 workers have been reducing workers for five months.
I am confident something (many things?) went totally nuts in BLS sampling or assumptions, and the economy did not suddenly add 785,000 government workers in September.However, BLS math is such that one cannot (should not) extrapolate total job losses starting from that 785,000.The September report was garbage. They all have been garbage lately, but this one wins the blue ribbon for worst yet.More By This Author:The German Auto Industry Suffers Another Smackdown BlowElectric Big Rigs Don’t Make Sense Even With $40,000 In Tax Credits Gold Or Platinum: At These Levels, Which Is The Better Buy?
