Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold blue), UMich survey of consumer expectations (light blue square), UMich expectations plus 0.6 ppts (red triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, UMichigan, McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024), and author’s calculations.Note that mass deportation of only (!) 1.3 mn net immigrants would lead to about 0.35 ppts higher inflation in 2025, 0.55 ppts by 2026. (The deportation on net of 8.3 million would lead to about 2.25 ppts higher inflation by 2025, and 3.5 ppts by 2026.)My discussion of tariffs and cost of living on WPR the other day. More discussion at Main Street Agenda: Inflation in Milwaukee on October 15 (with my colleague J. Michael Collins and other panelists).More By This Author:Instantaneous Core PricesNowcasts, Weekly Indicators, And Additions To The “Recession Camp”CPI And CPI Core Surprise On Upside
