Trump promises the largest deportation project in history. The crowd cheers. But what does it mean? 
Data from Homeland Security via Statista download, chart by Mish Missing Data ExtrapolatedData between 1990 and 1995, 1995 and 2000, and 2000 and 2005 are extrapolated linearly. 2021 is the average of 2020 and 2022.The Center for Migration Studies estimates US Undocumented Population Increased to 11.7 Million in July 2023
The estimates are based on data collected by two Census Bureau surveys, the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). The ACS is an annual survey covering approximately one percent of the total US population. The CPS is a much smaller monthly survey of about 60,000. The CPS collects detailed demographic data, but its main emphasis is on labor force data.
The total undocumented population increased to about 11.7 million in July 2023, an increase of about 800,000 compared to the previous July. The estimate for 2023 is below the peak of 12 million reached in 2008. After 2008, the population steadily declined, falling to 10 million in 2020. Population growth in 2022-2023 was about 200,000 less than the previous high of one million in 2000-2001.
Trump to Terminate Open Bordershttps://twitter.com/DarkSideAdvcate/status/1746706215789351305“As soon as I take the oath of office, I will terminate every open border policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”Link to Trump Video if Tweet does not display. How Many, How Soon?https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1833397810152280573Link to Twitter Video if the above embed does not play.“How are you going to take millions of these people and put them in cuffs and drag them out while people have their cell phones out recording this, or is that just Trump being Trump?”It took Vance over two minutes to answer the question, sort of.Essentially, his answer was to shut of immigration and do it in pieces starting with criminals. What Does Trump Propose?The largest deportation in history can mean 2 million or 15 million (factoring in an estimated 3 million immigrants for 2023-2024).Vance suggests taxing immigrants’ ability to send money abroad and then 20 percent will leave voluntarily.Assuming you accept that idea, what about the other 12 million immigrants? Cost Per DeportationIt would take thousands of officers to hunt down migrants, many in uncooperative sanctuary cities, large holding facilities, and cooperation from other countries. There would also be huge legal challenges.What would that cost per person? $10,000? $20,000? $30,000?The American Immigration Council (AIC) estimates the total cost of deportation (not counting the knock on impacts) at $315 billion.That’s about $21,000 per person. I suspect that answer is on the low side.The AIC notes the total prison population is U.S. prison and jail population in 2022, comprising every person held in local, county, state, and federal prisons and jails, was 1.9 million people.No one knows what Trump really has in mind, but let’s assume he means the max or something like 2/3 the max, ~10 million. Devastating Consequences
In total, we find that the cost of a one-time mass deportation operation aimed at both those populations—an estimated total of is at least $315 billion. We wish to emphasize that this figure is a highly conservative estimate. It does not take into account the long-term costs of a sustained mass deportation operation or the incalculable additional costs necessary to acquire the institutional capacity to remove over 13 million people in a short period of time—incalculable because there is simply no reality in which such a singular operation is possible.
Beyond the direct financial cost of mass deportation, we also estimated the impact on the U.S. economy. Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent. It would also result in significant reduction in tax revenues for the U.S. government. In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrant households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. Undocumented immigrants also contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare.
Mass deportations would cause significant labor shocks across multiple key industries, with especially acute impacts on construction, agriculture, and the hospitality sector. We estimate that nearly 14 percent of people employed in the construction industry are undocumented. Removing that labor would disrupt all forms of construction across the nation, from homes to businesses to basic infrastructure. As industries suffer, hundreds of thousands of U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs.
These numbers do not even come close to capturing the human cost of mass deportation. About 5.1 million U.S. citizen children live with an undocumented family member. Separating family members would lead to tremendous emotional stress and could also cause economic hardship for many of these mixed-status families who might lose their breadwinners, jeopardizing their economic and social well-being.
Deporting undocumented workers would wreak havoc on industry, exacerbating labor shortages and triggering additional job losses for American workers. For example, if a shortage of construction workers prevents a house from getting built, the businesses that would be furnishing that house—from kitchen appliances to bedframes—lose business, too. Without field workers to pick crops, truckers have no goods to transport, and farmers have no need to buy new farm equipment.
Proponents of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants argue that it would raise wages for American workers. But past economic research suggests the opposite is true. In a literature review, economist Michael A. Clemens of George Mason University concludes that “the immigrants being targeted for removal are the lifeblood of several parts of the U.S. economy.”
One 2023 study looked at the economic effects of increased deportations under Secure Communities, a federal initiative that resulted in the deportation of an estimated 400,000 immigrants between 2008 and 2014, and found that when 500,000 undocumented immigrant workers were forced out of the country, 44,000 fewer jobs were held by U.S.-born workers.
Case Study: The Impact of Senate Bill 1718 on Florida
Florida recently implemented legislation targeting undocumented immigrants, with repercussions that surprised even the lawmakers who had supported it—and illustrate that, inevitably, hardline immigration enforcement measures will have negative economic impacts on U.S. citizens.
In May 2023, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed Senate Bill 1718 into law. SB 1718 requires private businesses with 25 or more employees to use the federal E-Verify database to screen new workers; makes it a felony to transport an undocumented immigrant into the state or for an undocumented immigrant to use a false ID to obtain work; and prohibits undocumented immigrants from driving with an out-of-state license, among other provisions.
Even before the law went into effect that July, undocumented immigrants began moving out of state, afraid and unable to work. Within months, farmers, builders, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses in the state complained of worker shortages. Even people with legal work authorization moved, worried for their undocumented family members.
“They’re just picking up and leaving to a state where they’re more friendly towards migrants, where they don’t have to be looking over their shoulder every 10 seconds and saying, ‘Look, I’m going … to be deported,’” Greg Batista, owner of G. Batista Engineering & Construction, told the Tampa Bay Times.
Construction projects stalled, fruit rotted in the fields, hotels and restaurants fired staff and put up “Help Wanted” signs. Rental units were left empty, and businesses lost customers. Walt Disney World had trouble finding cast members. State representatives who had themselves supported the legislation publicly appealed to immigrants not to leave.
Florida’s experience provides a small peek into how a national mass deportation of undocumented immigrants would have more significant impact across states and economic sectors in the U.S. economy. While Florida is home to a higher share of undocumented immigrants than most states—five percent compared with the national average of 3.3 percent—its outsized reliance on undocumented immigrant workers is not atypical.
The negative impact of targeting undocumented immigrants with anti-immigration policies in Florida should not have come as a surprise. When Georgia enacted similar legislation in 2011, the ensuing labor shortage resulted in an estimated $140 million in crop losses that year alone.
In Arizona, legislators stopped short of expanding its law targeting undocumented immigrants in 2010 after opposition from business leaders. Economists estimated an exodus of the undocumented population would shrink Arizona’s economy by $48.8 billion annually, cost the state 10.1 percent of its tax revenues, and lead to the loss of 581,000 jobs, affecting all Arizonans.
Mass Deportation Isn’t Just CruelBloomberg has an article on immigration for those with an open mind.Please consider Mass Deportation Isn’t Just Cruel, It’s Expensive
Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have made clear their intention to rid the nation of undocumented immigrants, sometimes using explicitly Nazi rhetoric about “vermin” who are “poisoning the blood of our country” to drive the point home. Trump has publicly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”
At the vice presidential debate, Vance was also asked if the MAGA regime would deport immigrant parents of US-citizen children. He responded with falsehoods and never answered the question. Which is another way of saying that the correct answer is almost certainly “yes.”
The cost of destroying families and communities is not factored into the American Immigration Council report, but it’s sure to be significant. Most undocumented immigrants in the US have been in the nation for more than a decade. They are not newcomers; they have roots. And as the debate moderator’s question implied, some of those roots are attached to American children.
About 5 million US citizen children live with an undocumented family member. According to the Migration Policy Institute, about 1.6 million unauthorized immigrants were married to US citizens, and another 675,000 were married to lawful permanent residents as of 2018. Shattering those families and disrupting the businesses where they work and the neighborhoods and churches to which they belong wouldn’t be a modest undertaking.
The Middle GroundWe need sensible immigration policy. Mass deportation of 10 to 15 million immigrants (or even 6 million) is not sensible.Those who believe US citizens will pick crops, clean hotel rooms, and provide construction labor in the hot sun at a reasonable (if any) cost are crazy.The US has an aging labor force and tens of millions of retirements are coming up.It’s a dirty, not-so-secret, fact that red state and blue state alike depend on migrant labor for crops and construction projects.However, an open border is not the answer either. We can do without the crime and shelter costs that uncontrolled immigration bring. Flying Haitians (or anyone else) here is beyond ridiculous and begging for problems.I suggest we deport criminals, have a reasonable amnesty program for hard working immigrants who have been here for years, and mostly close the border using the military if necessary.Future immigration should be based on our genuine needs.Those needs may be more or less than people think. Regardless, the key is to have a controlled, enforceable, and timely process that everyone understands.I suspect this post won’t go over well. So be it. People have no vision of who will fill the needed jobs, and at what cost, if we deport 10 million workers, even if done over a few years.Related Posts Buy American ProvisionsOn October 5, I commented Buy American Provisions Cost $125,000 Per Job Created“Buy America” sounds great. But it’s costly and about to rise steeply. Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade DeficitOn September 26, I commented Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.
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