Market maneuvers are somewhat surgical and formulaic for this time of year. It may be that way in both China and the U.S., with Oil prices off based on Oil demand being lower for Asia (that can change yet-again); but not much more. (And Oil rebounded in last trading Tuesday; it’s still in the 65-80 broad range).I suppose talk that Israel will ‘only’ hit military targets on anticipated retaliation on Iran, is somehow easing concerns about Iran hitting Saudi Arabian Oil (ah yes; defending those facilities has more Oil market impact than most aspects of the conflict, as unfortunately sometimes follow the money exceeds ethics in geopolitics especially among the Arab countries and their dealings with Iran).
Market X-ray: between United Healthcare Care’s unhealthy issues; and of course ASML’s miss; you had an interesting mild defensive market; just a bit of late comeback this time, and some likely rebounds (at this higher level) on the docket for tomorrow, providing no overnight news that’s earth-shattering.Bigger picture; geopolitics (globally not domestic issues) remains foremost. It should be considered that Iran’s two attacks on Israel ‘directly’ means that the ‘no peace / no war’ (other than via proxies) era of many years is now over and that actually increases the risks, even as the parties ‘may’ seem to back-off.Note: I have discontinued a phone number shown on the website. I kept it for years, but the number of marketing or non-business calls (scams or not) continuously increased and became very annoying .. I guess that happens if your number if on a website. Anyway, we are glad to respond if needed by email as has always been our preferred method, and if a voice call is needed we will first arrange a time by email and then be glad to be of help if we can. I really just can’t take frequent annoying calls (mostly from Asia I think) as I’m sure many have encountered this, so you likely share the same sentiments.Fear of materially under-performing benchmark equity indices like the S&P, is probably why the cash-laden money managers chased big-caps so very high. I quipped that Goldman’s trading flow guy saying that ‘declines are cancelled’, pretty much ensured a shakeout, as too many were saying there is superior ‘optimism’, just days after moaning about excess pessimism.I don’t think much changed; market is a high-wire act or ‘scrimmage’ as I term it just now; with the daily outcome irresolute and the seasonals ‘playing on’. It might be the 3rd Quarter in the shaky seasonal time; but still room for moves.Meanwhile.. after the Close today, AEHR Test Systems announced a ‘shelf registration’, which might be to help fund their gearing-up for Ai chip testing. So far I’m not surprised and expected the shares to fade after a stronger pop on the last (unchanged guidance which was already lower) earnings Call.United Airlines (UA) reported a mediocre Quarter and then announced a buyback; so that buoyed shares after they initiall sold-off. Also BigBear.ai settled-back a bit as suspected likely; on light volume; should try to reassert itself. As for SoundHound, stronger with no news; and likely wants to progress more for the moment.. perhaps the earlier high this year just over 6 will be visited. The Semi’s were all heavy, including AMD.
Bottom-line: a couple well-followed stocks missed; so markets pressed just a bit.. while breadth was not negative (some nibbling at smaller-caps. It’s clearly a challenging time, as should be, with pricing-power reduced in the consumer areas (where even Jobs were distorted as being stronger than they really are; due to high Gov’ment hiring).Meanwhile it’s Roctober and we skirt along able to respond either way given news sensitivity. Barring shocks ought to see some washout and rebound for S&P; while generally this is a mixed ‘skirmish’ that is ongoing.
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