Daily Market Outlook - Friday, Oct. 18 -

Daily Market Outlook – Friday, Oct. 18

Oct 18, 2024Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

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China’s stock market rose on Friday as the central bank launched a swap facility to boost the equity market, although other Asian markets were mixed amid data confirming a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. dollar hovered near an 11-week high against major peers, supported by robust economic data and market speculation about a potential election victory for Donald Trump, which helped push gold to a new record high. China’s central bank governor also signalled more interest rate cuts, but investors have been frustrated by the lack of details from Chinese authorities on their economic stimulus measures. China’s economic growth in the third quarter slightly missed expectations, though it still expanded year on year. The announcement of the most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic at the end of last month has overshadowed the recent data, even though the lack of detail in subsequent press briefings has diminished the initial momentum.The ECB cut interest rates by 25bps, taking the main deposit rate to 3.25%. President Lagarde defended the decision, noting the disinflationary process is on track and price risks are now probably to the downside. Economic activity has been weaker than expected, and the existing growth forecasts are too optimistic, suggesting a further rate cut in December is likely.Another positive UK retail sales report, September building on the better performance in August with a +0.3% m/m gain for both the inc and ex-fuels measures. The improvement comes despite a weak performance from food retailers, more than offset by stronger department store spending and robust non-food store sales. Sales trends are looking more robust, and the outlook ought to remain constructive as declining shop prices and solid wage growth underpin consumer spending power. It sia quiet end to the week on the data slate Stateside with Housing starts and a smattering of FED speakers, all of whom markets have heard from repeatedly since the rate decision earlier this month.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

China’s Reports Q3 GDP: 4.6% Close To Expectations

China Data Mixed, Highlighting Stimulus Urgency

China Urges Swift Implementation New Financial Policies

China’s Mega Banks Trim Deposit Rates, Stimulus Hits

Japan’s Inflation Slows, First Time Since April Ahead Of BoJ

NZ Escalates Dispute With Canada Over Dairy Exports

US Blinken: War Must End Without Hamas Ruling Gaza

US Tsy Sec. Yellen: High US Tariff Wall ‘Deeply Misguided’

Mark Cuban Joins Harris On Trail To Hit Trump Over Tariffs

Japan Warns On Sudden Moves After Yen Hits 150 Range

Asian Stocks Rise; Treasuries Steady After Selloff

GS, Blackstone To Sell Novel Fund Finance Bond

Nvidia-Backed Firm Eyes D-Center Near Jap’s Nuclear

Netflix Beats Wall Street’s Forecasts In Every Major Metric

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FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.0770-75(1.3BLN), 1.0800 (537M), 1.0850 (1.4BLN), 1.0875-85 (738M)

1.0925-35 (1BLN), 1.0940-50 (1.8BLN)

USD/CHF: 0.8490 (1.5BLN), 0.8600 (300M), 0.8700 (1BLN)

AUD/USD: 0.6750 (331M), 0.6800 (681M). NZD/USD: 0.6120 (295M)

AUD/NZD: 1.0985 (300M)

USD/CAD: 1.3695-1.3705 (820M), 1.3715-20 (1BLN)

USD/JPY: 149.50 (815M), 149.80 (260M), 150.00 (273M), 150.65 (1.1BLN)

151.00 (598M)

CFTC Data As Of 11/10/24

Japanese Yen net long position is 36,528 contracts

British Pound net long position is 93,135 contracts

Euro net long position is 39,098 contracts