We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment at 7:15 A.M., GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv, GDP Price Index QoQ Adv, Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv, GDP Sales QoQ Adv, PCE Prices QoQ Adv, Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv, and Treasury Refunding Announcement at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that its US House Price Index advanced 0.3% in August to set a record high of 427. This marked the 24th consecutive month that the index was unchanged or higher. Compared to a year ago, the index rose 4.2% to mark the 150th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Home prices marked annual gains in all 9 of the Census reporting regions, ranging from 2.4% increase in the West South Central region to a 6.3% increase in the East North Central region. This remains positive for existing homeowners but an economic hinderance for prospective home buyers. The National Association of Realtors’ Home Affordability Index in August showed that home affordability remained near a 38-year low, as the median home price was unaffordable for the median income.
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Normal/Above Normal South American Rainfall Next Two Weeks:The South American forecast is consistent/unchanged, and a rather normal performance of Brazil’s monsoon occurs while additional rain impacts Argentina in the 6-10 day period. NOAA’s 8-14 day bias has been corrected and 16-20 day guidance features normal precipitation and Argentina and above normal rainfall across nearly all of Brazil. Subsoil moisture reserves in Argentina and Brazil are building slowly, but building nonetheless. Top soil moisture is adequate. A nice mix of rain/sun is forecast in Argentina and far Southern Brazil into Nov 8th . Dryness there through the balance of this week is followed by regionally heavy precipitation in Southern Cordoba and Buenos Aires Nov 2-4. Daily shower chances are offered to Brazil after the next 24 hours. Threats are absent today.
Corn Recovers; Global Fob Premiums Steady/Slightly Weaker; Builds in Argentine Soil Moisture Caps Rallies:CBOT corn ended firm on Turnaround Tuesday – in sympathy with wheat – but bullish input is needed to propel Dec above $4.30 remains lacking. Competition for nearby importer demand has returned as Argentine upriver premiums sag, and cash ethanol prices have done little in recent weeks, with spot quoted at $1.57/Gal. Margins are thin. A large majority of South America’s surplus will be determined by weather there between Feb-Mar, but Argentina’s first crop (30% of total) is in good shape following recent builds in subsoil moisture. Spot CBOT corn remains stuck between $4.00-$4.30 with a meaningful change in US balance sheet (and stocks 1.9-2.0 Bil Bu), which will only be adjusted due to South American crop loss, or the return of bulk Chinese purchases – which are not expected through the remainder of 2024. The market must encourage Nov-Feb demand growth. Rallies above $4.25 will be challenge.More By This Author:Hoping For Seasonal Sustained Rallies. The Corn & Ethanol ReportChina’s Absence – Exports – South American Plantings. The Corn & Ethanol ReportExports-North & South America Weather & Yields. The Corn & Ethanol Report
