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Gold continued its slow advance to new record prices while other risk assets cooled off after US Advance GDP data undershot expectations.
Precious metals are the standout asset class in the market right now, with Silver rising recovering some ground yesterday while Gold rose to trade at a new all-time high of $2,790. Palladium has also recently reached a new high price. Palladium futures are expensive but there is a Palladium ETF which is affordable.
There were two very important data releases in the USA yesterday:
- US Advance GDP, which disappointed at a slower annualized growth rate of 2.8% despite a consensus forecast of 3.0%.
- US ADP NFP Employment change, came in well above expectations at 233k, suggesting a still-booming economy despite the slowing GDP growth. The jobs data was boosted by data showing Consumer Spending rising by 3.7%, the largest number seen in the USA in 18 months.
The Bank of Japan concluded its policy meeting by leaving rates unchanged. This move, and the details of its economic forecast, were no surprise.
With less than 1 week to go before the close of polls in the US election which will see the states and voters choose a new President and Congress, the “Trump Trade” has continued to look strong despite a few pullbacks, as polls and betting markets continue to suggest a narrow Trump victory is the more likely outcome, although it is worth noting the polls are very close and well within their statistical margins of error. The Trump Trade is broadly long Bitcoin and US stock markets (both of which fell yesterday), and to some analysts, also Gold. Trend traders will be interested to be involved here, but if Trump’s small poll lead evaporates or an event happens which is very negative for Trump before election day, it may push these prices down. However, it should be noted that Trump’s very narrow poll lead is not the only reason these assets are rising.
In the Forex market, the Canadian Dollar is the weakest major currency and the Japanese the strongest since the Tokyo open. The USD/JPY currency pair remains in focus as there is volatility in the Japanese Yen.
Iran yesterday made more precise threats to launch a military strike against Israel, with social media accounts linked to the regime promising a strike before 6th November.
There are a few highly important data releases due today:
- US Core PCE Price Index – this is expected to show a month-on-month gain of 0.3%. This is a very key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed, and under or outperformance could shift the US Dollar.
- US Employment Cost Index
- US Unemployment Claims
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