Welcome back readers. Glad to have you. A quick shout out to Geoff who did an excellent job filling in last week as I was travelling. Speaking of traveling, during my travels, I heard from one of our readers who is a savvy financial guy who said to me, “I don’t follow people like you because you tell me what happened but because you will give me your point of view.”So noted.
The election rally runs out of steam.The market got hit fairly hard on Friday with declining stocks outpacing advancing issues by a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. Volume was heavier than it had been lately, and we also had one of the largest S&P option expirations taking place.Stocks finished the week broadly lower, giving back more than half of the post-election gains. Small-cap stocks, the recent darlings, as well as rate sensitive stock took the biggest hit.Just a short few days ago, on Monday, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all hit record new highs.But for the remainder of the week, it was all downhill.Retail sales beat expectations for the fourth straight month with additional positive sentiment measures, including manufacturing indicators surprising to the upside as well. These numbers showed the economy is still on firm footing and helped to drive interest rates on the 10-year higher.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index reports were in line with expectations, but inflation continues to tick higher on a year-over-year basis. This is something our own Mish has been suggesting would occur for months on her national TV appearances. If you would like to review some of her recent media appearances, you can go here.Also, if you are not already signed up to receive her “Mish’s Daily”, you can sign up here.What is stopping you?
Economic surprises.As noted above, this past week saw economic numbers that showed impressive growth in the manufacturing sector. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey blew past the expected monthly readings.See below:NY manufacturing. “This morning’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (red line) was projected to be flat at 0, up from -11.9, but the actual print came in at an impressive +31.2. If 2016 is any indication, this could be just the beginning of much stronger-than-expected survey data.”
The US Economic surprise index SURPRISED investors:
Given the above positive numbers and “surprises” recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of a “bumpy path” regarding inflation. The dollar continued to push higher and hit a one-year high against the Euro amid fears of a global tariff war as the President Elect Trump is selecting people to surround him that are loyalists and appear amenable to carry out his plan, which includes heavy tariffs, tax reductions and a hard line with potentially negative global business implications.The dollar’s continued ascent, along with Treasury yields moving higher, all contributed to negative investor sentiment this past week, even though inflows to stocks hit historic highs the week before. See charts below:
The past two weeks of the 10-year Treasury Market is Below:
The past one year for the US Dollar is below:
The market has been positively affected by the outcome of the election.Positive investment sentiment from retail investors has caused huge inflows of new money into the equity (stocks and ETFs) market.See two illustrations below: Retail flows. “Last week saw the strongest retail investor buying flow in over 137 weeks (since 3/22). +3.2 standard deviations above the 12M average.”
US equity fund flows. “Equities saw a big inflow this past week (to +$29.36bn, the biggest inflow in 7 weeks, from -$0.89bn) following the election results.”
A changing administration means a possible changing investment landscape.As mentioned above, there are differing opinions of what the new administration could do to affect global investment markets and the US investment Sectors.As President elect Trump begins to name his cabinet so does speculation that many of these individuals could surprise and/or disrupt areas of the market.Therefore, we are seeing rapid shifts in US sectors as well as global asset classes.For example, speculation surrounding the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of the Health & Human Services (HHS) has caused a sell-off in health care stocks including but not limited to pharmaceutical company stocks and biotechnology companies.Mr. Kennedy, for years, has gained a loyal following with his condemnations of how the nation’s public health agencies were conducting business. That puts him at odds with 80,000 scientists, researchers, doctors, and other officials who currently work for the HHS.This has led to the Health Care and Biotechnology sectors seeing a fierce sell-off this past week.See charts and more information below:
Healthcare puts. “Put volumes (that is, bearish options bets) on the Health Care Select Sector SPDF ETF spiked to a more than three-year high on Thursday” after Trump picked RFK for health secretary.
One of the more important sectors contained in Mish’s Economic Modern Family (you can get more information on the EMF by going here), is the “Big Brother Biotechnology”.See the depiction below:
Biotechnology (IBB) “Big Brother” – Biotech,highly speculated, assesses where money is flowing.If speculators are confident, they will park money here.
So far, with the appointment of Mr. Kennedy leading HHS, Biotechnology stocks and the sector have sold off hard.See graph below:
Reality is setting in.Are investors having second thoughts about the positive benefits from the new President Elect?It is far too early to tell.There will be much jockeying that goes on before the new administration, new Senate majority and as new players put their plans into action.However, reading the tea leaves is forcing many investors to look more closely for the positives and negatives of the upcoming new administration.The expectations seem to be revolving around the following potential future market policies, including:
These questions are beginning to permeate the investor mindset. The Magnificent 7 is now selling at a 50x multiple of future earnings and given changes in the US posture, folks are beginning to have second thoughts about investing in companies with such lofty price to earnings ratios.Perhaps because of these concerns (and others) we have seen the markets pull back over the past few days.We offer the following market charts to illustrate how expensive (or fairly valued) the stock market has become and why we may be seeing this pullback as questions about the future economic policies of the upcoming administration take hold.See below:SPX valuation. The index’s forward P/E ratio is at its highest (22.2) since April 2021. Ten of eleven sectors are trading at multiples that exceed their 25-year averages.
However, compared to other countries around the world, the corporate earnings of the United States are head and shoulders above of the rest of the world. See chart below:US EPS vs. the rest. And finally, “forward earnings per share (EPS) for the US MSCI stock price index is flying to new record highs, while the rest of world’s forward EPS have remained relatively flat in recent years.”
Taking a look at the various market indices over the past week
“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager
A bright sector in the market:Of course, there are some pockets of strength in sectors since the election. Initially, the perception that the economy would be business friendly to small businesses (less regulations and lower interest rates), the Russell 2000 index (small-cap stocks) blasted off. That rally (as shown above) has stopped in its tracks this week as higher interest rates, unfriendly to smaller companies, hit new post-election highs.The idea that this administration would be ultra friendly to energy (part of the campaign speeches) has lifted most energy stocks and the sector.See below:
A major shift in two asset classes has occurred since the Election.
We are sure that you are aware that Elon Musk, the Chair of TESLA and other modern day technological wonders, is working closely with the new President elect and has been named to head up a new office aptly called DOGE (Department of Office Government Efficiency).We think it is no coincidence that the office was named after a digital stable coin. Mr. Musk’s companies hold meaningful digital based investments, and he will be one of many, that will try and influence the upcoming administration to allow, invest and utilize digital currencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.Also add to this equation the speculation that the upcoming named Treasury Secretary may be a person who has a propensity to expand the use of digital currencies within the US budget. There has also been speculation that the administration will try and integrate digital currencies into a way to fund the current and future debts.These factors and more have led to huge inflows into the crypto space, be it Bitcoins or their proxy ETFs such as BITO, BTC, IBIT, etc. The enthusiasm has been shared by Ethereum and its ETF ETHE.
The big winner the past five years may be losing its steam.Gold has certainly been the big winner with performance over the past five years, besting the Dow Jones Industrial Average.See the chart below:
Gold Has Outperformed Stocks Over the Last Five YearsGold has appreciated 80% over the last five years, 25% more than the 57% gain in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) over this period.
Recently Gold and Silver (and the miners) have been selling off. Not surprising given that interest rates and the US Dollar have hit recent highs since the Election. Gold and Silver are especially sensitive to the strength in the Dollar and are negatively affected by rising interest rates.Also, as illustrated below, apparently Gold does not like the Trump Administration.
Investment assets have been moving from Gold to Bitcoin. This thesis has picked up speed as many institutional investors who have been shortsighted not buying gold the past few years, have felt more comfortable with the size and liquidity of the crypto markets.See below:Gold vs. Bitcoin fund flows. As gold funds experienced the largest outflow (-$1.6bn) in more than 2 years, crypto funds saw record inflow (+$6bn).
If you are not yet a believer in Bitcoin and the slew of digital currencies available for trading, perhaps it is time to get on board that train as it is leaving the station.Given that many of these blockchain technology currencies are now available through ETFs it is rather simple to make an allocation to this alternative asset class.You also may not be aware that MarketGauge offers subscribers an effective risk managed way to invest in digital currencies, including the ETFs.We also have a quant method to invest in shadow securities that can provide investors with exposure to digital currency related major stocks on the public exchanges. One of these strategies we guide subscribers on is up over 100% year-to-date and a proxy ETF for Bitcoin is up over 30% year-to-date with risk managed controls in place. If you would like more information on these available strategies, reach out to Rob Quinn at Rob@MarketGauge.com.
The good news.We are not even in the early innings of the NEW Administration, and when many policies and regulations become reality, it is anyone’s guess which sectors will be the leaders in 2025 and beyond.Clearly with the advent of AI, technology, semiconductors, new innovations and blockchain technologies have plenty of upside. Perhaps, as we have shown in this week’s Outlook, these sectors got ahead of themselves and just needed a pause to refresh.The following charts should provide plenty of platitudes on why the NEW Administration should reap positive rewards for investors going forward. Note that we have a RED WAVE, made up of a Republican President, and Republican majority in both the Senate and House.According to the chart below, having a red wave sweep has helped the stock market do well in other periods this occurred in history. See chart below:Red wave. “Since 1900 the 2-year equity return of the S&P 500 following a sweep has been positive 15 out of 19 elections. For just the Republicans, it has been 7 out of 8.”
Thank you for reading this week’s, Market Outlook.Please reach out to us if we can be of any help or you have a comment about this column.We are grateful you choose to spend a few minutes with us every week and we look forward to connecting with you in the future.More By This Author:“Frighteningly” Great Markets This Past Year Make History
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