The narrative is similar for the 10-year rate. At this juncture, it appears that the 10-year is closer to a significant breakout than the dollar index. A move above 4.5% for the year could signal that a rise to 5% on the 10-year rate may be imminent.
Despite lower rates and a weaker dollar, the Inflation Expectations ETF (RINF) rose today. As the chart below illustrates, the ETF is nearing a critical breakout above a significant level of resistance.
This ETF closely tracks the 10-year Treasury, so a breakout in RINF likely indicates rising 10-year rates. The market may be poised to see who will be appointed as the next Treasury Secretary, which could influence future movements.
Gold increased today, reaching approximately $2,615, but this rise appears to be a retest of a previous breakdown. The outlook might change if gold can surpass the lower trend line. However, any upward movement in gold is likely to be short-lived as long as the dollar and interest rates continue to rise.
The Nasdaq is currently hovering at a critical support level. This is a pivotal point, but if interest rates begin to climb and the dollar strengthens, it could spell trouble for the index. The prevailing pattern is a rising wedge marked by a throw-over. We are now awaiting confirmation of a potential break.
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