Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims.Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six month low. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million:
As with one week ago, the increase in continuing claims is mainly about lagged effects from the hurricanes in North Carolina.On the more important YoY basis, initial claims are unchanged. The four week moving average are down -0.2%. Continuing claims were up 5.2%:
None of this suggests any particular weakness.Looking ahead to next week’s payrolls report, absent the effect of new entrants to the employment market via immigration, the unemployment rate should not increase and should decline in the next few months to 4.0% or less:
Jobless claims continue to paint a picture of at least moderate economic expansion in the near future.More By This Author:October Existing Home Sales: A Pause, Or Possibly Reversal, In The Rebalancing Trend Initial Claims Are Positive, While Hurricane-adjusted Continued Claims Are Neutral What To Look For If Housing Construction Does Forecast A Recession
