We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index,and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Durable Goods Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv, Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Non Defense Goods Orders Wx Air, PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est, and Real Earnings Spending QoQ 2nd Est at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY and 4-Week & 8-Wee Bill Auction at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 7-Year Note Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate, and EIA Natural Gas Storage at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that the average price of single-family homes with a mortgage guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased by 0.7% in September, beating expectations of a 0.3% increase. The US House Price Index set a record high of 430.3, marking the 25th consecutive month higher. Compared to a year ago, the home price cost 4.4% more, marking the 151st consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The Case-Shiller 20-city average price index showed a 0.4% decline in prices for September but was 4.6% higher than a year ago. New York reported the highest annual gain of 7.5%, followed by Cleveland 7.1%, and Chicago at 6.9%. Denver posted the smallest growth of 0.2%, while Portland and Tampa saw growth of just 1%.
CBOT Corn Chart Down on 25% US Tariffs and Mexican Retaliation Threat;March CBOT corn fell below its 50-day moving average following heightened fears of slowing exports to Canada and Mexico – which in 2023/24 imported a combined 1.07 Bil Bu of US origin – and as other fundamental inputs leans negative. US trade policy aside, deflated corn values in China and near-perfect weather in Argentina and Brazil linger in the backround. South American corn production will rise 250-275 Mil Bu year-over-year assuming normal weather, and any N American Trade war will occur just prior to S American harvest. Ag Resources (ARC) calculates that managed funds on Tuesday evening are long a net 110,000 contracts in Chicago. This is down 5,000 from last week and is subject to be liquidated if US tariffs are realized and if heat/dryness fails to materialize in Argentina/Brazil prior to late December. It’s the coming build in global inventories that keeps upside capped at $4.40 basis March. Be prepared to add to 2024 & 2025 sales on recoveries as the US farmer will plant an extra 2-3 Mil acres of corn next spring. US farmers will soon shed old crop stocks in the new tax year. As far as the tariffs to China Hevin O’leary was quoted on Fox and friends China’s tariffs should be 400% which will get Xi’s attention. As far as Canada there is little concern because he will not be around for any time soon and a more economic sound replacement is waiting in the wings. Mexico cannot afford any further devaluation of the peso. These economic threats will bring them to the table to change trade, to be more balanced. With drugs, fentanyl, and migrants be addressed. It is time to dance to the American taxpayer tune. Finally, according to my trading screen, December corn open interest is still a whopping 89,444 contracts. If that number is correct it seems to be a record this late in the game, with First Notice Day Friday after the Thanksgiving holiday.More By This Author:Tariffs Are Not All Bearish. The Corn & Ethanol ReportCorn/Wheat FOB Prices- Black Seas Tensions & South American Weather. The Corn & Ethanol ReportSouth American Weather Remains A Gamechanger. The Corn & Ethanol Report
