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 The dollar is gaining momentum on Monday, recovering some of the losses from last week, partly due to unusual supportive remarks from the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Although 100% tariffs seem unlikely, his latest comments indicate a shift from his previous stance, where he openly advocated for a weaker dollar to address the U.S. trade deficit. The market interpreted this as a sign that he won’t exert pressure on the currency. The Chinese yuan reacted negatively, hitting a three-month low against the dollar. The dollar has also risen about 0.5% against the yen, surpassing 150.50 yen per dollar, overshadowing the more hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who mentioned that the next interest rate hikes are “nearing as economic data is on track.” Ueda’s remarks, along with data showing Japanese business investment increasing at a robust 8.1% in the third quarter, led markets to estimate a 65% likelihood that the BOJ will raise rates by a quarter point to 0.5% during its policy meeting on December 18-19. This probability is nearly identical to the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter point at its meeting on December 18, although much will hinge on the results of this week’s ISM surveys and payroll data. After France’s far-right National Rally increased the likelihood of a no-confidence vote this week that might overthrow Prime Minister Michel Barnier, French bonds and the single currency are starting the week under pressure. Repairing the budget seems improbable, and the potential deficit of 6% of GDP could make borrowing more expensive for France compared to Greece. The Social Security measure could be the subject of a vote of no confidence by the middle of the week. This week’s Euro Area data shows that ULC growth and 3Q GDP compensation per employee should continue to be strong at 4.3% and 4.5% year over year, respectively. Anticipate a slowdown in industrial production in October. ECB speakers include Lagarde, Nagel, Panetta, and Cipollone, who should allude to a probable December cut one week prior to the ECB meeting, emphasising that additional cuts will depend on data.In the UK, the focus will be on corporate opinion regarding the budget. Markets anticipate that businesses’ responses to the budget will be the main focus of this quiet week for releases. The Decision Maker Panel survey should provide an initial understanding of how businesses will handle the increased labour expenses from the budget and how they will divide these costs between increasing prices, reducing potential pay increases, or reducing hiring decisions.As the Fed currently considers risks to be balanced, data will return to the fore in the US with the November jobs report after weeks of intense political focus. U.S. job growth is anticipated to have bounced back by 195,000 in November, although the forecast range of 160,000 to 270,000 indicates a possibility of a higher-than-expected outcome. For example, JPMorgan is predicting an increase of 270,000, attributing nearly 90,000 of that to the conclusion of hurricanes and strikes. However, they also foresee the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, closer to the Fed’s dot plot of 4.4%, which may keep the option for a December easing open. The primary factor influencing short-term Fed activity is employment. Although there are indications that employment is levelling off, it is challenging to read the current trend because of hurricanes and strikes. The Fed says that balanced risks are coming and that they are ready to halt rate cuts if inflation does not go down or to expedite rate cuts if there is evidence of weakening employment. Next week, employment market risks will be the main topic of discussion. 
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

          (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
 FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

CFTC Data As Of 29/11/24

Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5990

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.05

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 92000

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