Wall Street’s bulls had an especially good Thanksgiving week. In addition to having a holiday-shortened work week, they were especially thankful to have the prospect of an additional rate cut in 2025 put back on the table. In response to that good news, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose to close at a new all-time record high of 6,032.38 at the close of trading on Friday, 29 November 2024. The index ended the week up just over one percent over where it closed the preceding week.There was no specific news headline that drove stock prices during the short trading week. Instead, a favorable consensus developed during the week of how the Fed’s current series of rate hikes would extend into 2025. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will act to reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% on 18 December 2024. After that, the FedWatch tool now anticipates that the Fed’s next interest rate action will be another quarter point cut on 19 March (2025-Q1), some three months earlier than projected a week earlier. The tool has added a new expected rate change in its forecast for 2025, a 0.25% cut on 17 September (2025-Q3), which wasn’t previously in the forecast.Those changes were enough to continue the upward momentum of the S&P 500. The latest update of the alternative futures chart places the index at a level that’s consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter of 2025-Q3, which is consistent with the FedWatch Tool’s projections as of Friday, 29 November 2024.latest updateWith U.S. markets trading week shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, much of the market moving news of the week that was came from outside the U.S.Monday, 25 November 2024
- Oil prices steady as Russia, Iran tensions fuel supply fears
- Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
- Fed survey finds inflation fading as a risk next to debt, trade wars
- Fed’s top expert on productivity sees case for optimism
- Germany stuck in economic weakness but rate cuts should be gradual, Nagel says
Tuesday, 26 November 2024
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Oil rises after selloff on possible Middle East ceasefire
- US oil firms unlikely to go ‘drill, baby, drill’ under Trump, says Exxon executive
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US new home sales tumble to two-year low in October
- US monthly house prices rise strongly in September
- Trump tariffs would harm all involved, US trade partners say
- Fed’s Kashkari: Interest-rate cut in December is ‘reasonable’
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Fed cites volatility, uncertainty as reasons to go slow on rate cuts
- Some Fed policymakers open to lowering the overnight repo rate
- China Oct industrial profits narrow decline, but headwinds loom
- China state media warn Trump against mutually destructive tariff war
- Japan’s steady service inflation keeps alive BOJ rate-hike prospects
- Euro’s bruising leaves global investors on edge
- Investors’ euro zone inflation expectations fall below 2% for first time since 2022
- ECB policymakers grow nervous about weak growth, Trump tariffs
- Wall Street stocks end higher on tech; markets analyze Trump’s tariff threats, Fed minutes
Wednesday, 27 November 2024
- Oil steady after surprise rise in US gasoline stocks
- US PCE price inflation ticks higher in October, as expected
- US third-quarter economic growth unrevised at 2.8%
- U.S. housing affordability to worsen even as price rises slow: Reuters poll
- BOJ incurs record losses on bond holdings as yields rise
- ECB rate stimulus no magic wand for structural faults, Schnabel argues
- French risk premium hits 12-year high while German bond yields fall
- Wall Street stocks end lower after inflation data, tech stocks push Nasdaq down
Friday, 29 November 2024
- Oil settles down as ease of supply risks drives weekly loss
- Canada’s economy expands by just 1%, chances of big rate cut jump
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Prepare for extra traffic at US ports
- Looming Trump Tariffs Spark Wave of Freight Frontloading From China
- China Air Cargo Flights Soar as Trump Return, Tariffs Loom
- China’s home prices set to stabilise by 2026 after slower falls: Reuters poll
- China’s Nov manufacturing activity seen expanding for second month: Reuters poll
- Chinese bond market grapples with ‘Japanification’
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BOJ’s Ueda says wage trends key to possible rate hikes, Nikkei reports
- BOJ’s Ueda says rate hike timing ‘approaching’, Nikkei reports
- BOJ’s retreat from low rates heightens Japan’s debt troubles
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European companies cut jobs as economy sputters
- German retail sales fall more than expected in October
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ECB needs to separate policy, transmission tools, Knot says
- Budget woes put French borrowing costs equal with crisis-scarred Greece
- Explainer: Could the ECB help France if borrowing costs surge further?
- ECB’s Villeroy: Should keep door open of larger rate cut in December
- S&P 500, Dow close at record highs on tech, retail in focus
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool’s projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 increased to +2.7% from the previous week’s +2.5%.More By This Author:How Big Is That Turkey On The Table? S&P 500 Rebounds As Investors Focus On 2025-Q2The Quiet S&P 500
