Daily Market Outlook – Thursday, Dec. 5


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 Asian markets displayed mixed results on Thursday after Wall Street reached record highs. A disappointing report on U.S. services data heightened investor optimism about the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Overnight, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all set new record levels. The price of one bitcoin has surged to six figures, crossing the $100,000 threshold. This milestone appeared increasingly likely following Donald Trump’s election as the next U.S. president, given his crypto-friendly campaign platform. While reaching this figure is symbolic, it highlights the growing prominence of cryptocurrencies in today’s financial markets. Some commentators jokingly speculated that persuasive conversations from children and grandchildren during Thanksgiving may have contributed to pushing bitcoin past this milestone, particularly as investors had shown hesitation at that level in the preceding weeks. However, the true driving force behind this momentum stemmed from significant investments by large investors and the introduction of new bitcoin ETFs.MSCI’s broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan saw a slight decline, as losses in Hong Kong outweighed gains in Australia and Japan. The Nikkei in Japan rose about 0.6%, reaching a three-week high, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell approximately 0.8%. The U.S. ISM survey revealed a slowdown in services sector activity for November, following significant gains in previous months. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down three basis points to 4.182%, remaining steady during Asian trading hours. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made cautious comments at a New York Times event on Wednesday, acknowledging that the economy is performing well but not strongly opposing market expectations for interest rate cuts. Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for a potential rate cut later in December. The main focus Stateside for the week will be the U.S. employment figures released on Friday, as a strong report could influence trends in the bond market.Significant increases in German stocks seem to stand in stark contrast to the overall pessimism seen throughout Europe. The situation in France deteriorated on Wednesday, as parliament approved a no-confidence motion against the government for the first time since 1962. Countries that were once considered stable, like Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea, are now experiencing political uncertainty. French bond futures and the financial markets in South Korea, following a failed attempt to enforce martial law, remained steady in Asia. With rising concerns about political turmoil, there may be a growing interest in cryptocurrency investments as a means to mitigate the risks linked to traditional asset classes. On the economic front, the upcoming U.S. jobs report on Friday is expected to be crucial, as a strong outcome could challenge market expectations for interest rate reductions. Furthermore, European retail sales figures will be eyed after German industrial orders released earlier remained in negative territory.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • BTC $100K Monster 2024 Rally Reaches New Heights
  • Oil Slightly Firmer Ahead Of OPEC+ Supply Decision
  • French PM To Resign On Friday As Political Crisis Festers
  • ING: ECB Yield-Curve Control: A Possibility To Cap Surge
  • People’s Daily: China Can Accept GDP Growth Of Less Than 5%
  • China’s Shift Momentum To Local Chips; Post – US Tariff Scare
  • Dovish BoJ Policymaker Nakamura: Not Objecting To Rate Hike
  • Australia Trade Balance Up More Than Expected In Oct
  • ETF That Amplifies Bet On US Market Leaders Highlights Concerns
  • Trump’s Mid-East Envoy Diplomatic Gaza Ceasefire Jan Push
  • BoK’s Rhee: Volatility Will Slowly Cool To Pre-Turmoil Level
  •           (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0440-50 (2.3BLN), 1.0475-80 (1.3BLN), 1.0500-05 (1.8BLN)
  • 1.0525-35 (1.7BLN), 1.0550 (1.3BLN), 1.0560-65 (1.8BLN)
  • 1.0580 (752M), 1.0600 (1.2BLN)
  • USD/CHF: 0.8725-30 (624M), 0.8820-25 (425M), 0.8840-50 (346M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8435-45 (410M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2600 (954M), 1.2625 (209M), 1.2650 (306M), 1.2670-85 (492M)
  • 1.2725 (260M), 1.2750 (1BLN)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6440-45 (903M), 0.6500 (486M), 0.6550-60 (943M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3950 (490M), 1.3975-80 (510M), 1.4030 (327M), 1.4050 (300M)
  • 1.4100 (374M), 1.4150 (268M), 1.4215 (643M)
  • USD/JPY: 149.00 (412M), 149.50 (305M), 149.70 (262M), 150.00 (790M)
  • AUD/JPY: 98.00 (1.2BLN), 100.00 (1BLN)
     
  • CFTC Data As Of 29/11/24

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 60 contracts to 1,079,539
  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 29,885 contracts to 258,924
  • Euro net short position is -42,557 contracts
  • Japanese yen net short position is -46,868 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -37,071
  • British pound net long position is 40,315
  • Bitcoin net short position is -2,084 contracts
  • Speculators trim CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 6,123 contracts to 35,645
  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 91,701 contracts to 907,502
  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 113,816 contracts to 1,983,026
  • Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,473 contracts to 1,447,344
     
  • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 6000

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 5990 opens 5930
  • Primary support 5795
  • Primary objective 6100
  • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0450

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 1.0590 opens 1.0728
  • Primary resistance 1.0950
  • Primary objective 1.0728
  • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.26

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish
  • Above 1.2760 opens 1.2859
  • Primary resistance 1.3050
  • Primary objective 1.2859
  • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 150 opens 148
  • Primary support 150
  • Primary objective is 157.50
  • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2530 opens 2467
  • Primary support 2530
  • Primary objective is 2800
  • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 92000

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 91000 opens 87500
  • Primary support is 85000
  • Primary objective is 100,000 TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING More By This Author:FTSE Snaps Its Winning Five Day Streak
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