Image Source: PixabayI’m going to set aside my weekend dependence on videos (which are much easier than posts), and actually muster up some text and graphics instead. This time, I’d like to home in on a group of the key exchange-traded funds.First up is the DIA ETF, which has been cruising along its ascending price channel for, well, forever. There’s little to say at this point, except that it is close to its midline. I think it’s entirely possible that the euphoria about the new administration and how “They’ll Fix Everything” will take a few months to die off. Once it does, though, it’ll be a sight to behold.
The worldwide fund might provide some appealing bear opportunities in the meanwhile. I have a large short position on this sucker, with a stop-loss at the price gap, which is anchored to the horizontal. The damaged trendline is, for me, the “tell.”
Mexico probably doesn’t have a great future ahead of it with the new administration, and I think the massive head-and-shoulder top on the EWW ETF could be indicative of what’s in store for 2025.
My hesitation about precious metals has been well-founded, and it seems to me that precious metals miners are in for a world of hurt in the weeks ahead.
The same can be said for gold. It’s frustrating, because I’d love for the big silver bull market to kick off, but I think gold is going to pull that sucker down. The jury is still out on the overall precious metals space.
Small-caps have been blasting higher for the past thirteen months, and they represent the most important threat to the two or three equity bears still around.
Likewise, the QQQ ETF is still bullishly configured. There’s not a bearish thing about this chart, and there won’t be until and unless that medium-term trendline is busted. The only thing with a plausible chance of creating such a fracture would be the semiconductor sector. Simply stated, it’s all up to Nvidia to crack the Nasdaq.
Speaking of silver, here’s the bullish base. It is precarious, however. If the price breaks that trendline I’ve drawn (and it wouldn’t take much), it would throw the entire idea into peril.
As I mentioned, the last, best hope for the two or three surviving bears is the semiconductor sector. Here is the semi fund, which might–and I emphasize the word might–be in the final throes of forming a reversal. If prices can reach below that semi-circle, then it would be party time.
The oldest and biggest fund, the SPY, has been merrily chirping along, notching nearly 60 lifetime highs during this perma-bullish year. There’s no reason to doubt it will cease doing so, unless it can crack its Aug. 5 trendline.
Lastly, the utilities are looking quite ill. They had been absolutely raging higher, hitting unprecedented prices just last week. Recently, however, it has failed its bullish breakout, and component parts like NextEra Energy seem to look exhausted as well.
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