We are now about six weeks into this medium-term downtrend which is about when you have to start looking for a signal that a new uptrend is starting. But after such a strong run from August to January, maybe the market could use a little more time to consolidate? The weekly Stochastic is in a nice range for a bullish turn higher.
52-week lows have dried up, and now the 52-week highs are starting to emerge. These are both positive signs for the broader market.
Outlook Summary:
Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the 300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.
Something else to consider is the Mueller investigation. I worry that the headlines generated by the investigation may rattle the markets more than people are currently anticipating. If Mueller-related headlines get closer to the White House, then they would probably hurt stocks and help bonds.
The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is up.
