Next is Gold against the S&P 500 (stock market), which has been locked in a range from 0.40 to 0.50 for nearly three years.Gold cannot surge from its 10-year-long base against the 60/40 Portfolio without outperforming stocks. Surpassing 0.50 and sustaining it should set the stage for a major leg higher in the entire sector. 
Gold needs to break out against the 60/40 Portfolio. That means Gold needs to break out against the stock market, which means Gold needs to outperform the Mag 7.The Mag 7 (Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon) gained an average of nearly 70% last year, driving the stock market higher. We plot Gold against an ETF that tracks the Mag 7. The ratio remains in a clear downtrend but bears watching. A rebound and stabilization near 60 could precede a Gold breakout against the S&P 500 and 60/40 Portfolio.
Lastly, various gold stock indices are consolidating within multi-year bases.GDX, XAU, and GOEX (a fund of juniors similar to GDXJ) boast four-and-a-half-year bases.There is potential for a breakout this year, which could unleash the best move to the upside since the recovery after the Covid crash. 
Gold’s big breakout last year underwhelmed because Gold did not outperform in real terms. However, it may be a prelude to more significant breakouts this year.Gold has a chance to break out against the 60/40 Portfolio and also the stock market. Should those breakouts occur, a breakout in the mining indices would follow. Then, Silver would come to center stage. A stock market and economic downturn are the fundamental catalysts for these breakout moves, as they will lead to significant capital moving out of the Mag 7 and equities and into Gold. In the meantime, one can position in quality junior companies that will lead the next move higher. More By This Author:2025 Macro Outlook And How Gold Will RespondGold New All Time High In Foreign Currencies Debt Collapse Starting, Gold Boom On The Horizon
