AUD/USD Price Forecast: Recovers Above 0.6200 As US Dollar Gives Up Gains


  • AUD/USD bounces back above 0.6200 as the US Dollar surrenders its intraday gains.
  • US Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico has resulted in a decline in USD’s risk premium.
  • China has retaliated with tariffs on the US, which would take place from February 10.
  • The AUD/USD pair rebounds sharply above the round-level figure of 0.6200 in Tuesday’s North American session. The Aussie pair recovers as the US Dollar (USD) gives up its intraday gains on the back of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to push the order to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on hold for 30 days. This scenario has resulted in a decline in the risk-premium of the US Dollar, given its safe-haven feature.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, drops to near 108.50 after a short-lived recovery move to near 109.00.However, Trump’s decision to put 10% tariffs on China has come into effect, which keeps fears of a trade war intact. In retaliation, China has also announced tariffs on the US, which will be executed in February. This has negatively impacted the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) outlook, given that the currency is a proxy for China’s economic status.Investors expect that an absence of immediate execution of tariffs by China suggests that the economy is continuing to negotiate with Trump.This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, which will be released on Friday. Market participants expect the official employment data to influence speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy guidance.AUD/USD posts a fresh four-year low around 0.6100. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6375 slopes downwards, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 20.00-40.00 range, indicating a strong bearish momentum.More downside would appear if the pair breaks below the immediate support of 0.6100, which would let it towards the psychological support of 0.6000 and 26 March 2020 low of 0.5870.On the flip side, a sustenance move above the January 13 high of 0.6330 will open doors to the round-level resistance of 0.6400 and the December 5 high of 0.6456.
     AUD/USD weekly chart More By This Author:EUR/USD Recovers As Investors See Trade War Restricted Between US And China USD/CAD Trades Cautiously Above 1.4400 As Trump Delays Tariffs On Canada US Dollar Index Gives Up Some Gains, Outlook Remains Firm As Trump Starts Trade War

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