Initial Unemployment Claims Increase By 11,000, Continued Claims By 36,000 -

Initial Unemployment Claims Increase By 11,000, Continued Claims By 36,000

Feb 06, 2025Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Initial and continued unemployment claims data from the department of Labor, chart by Mish.
Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending February 1.Initial Unemployment Claims

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000.

The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 212,500 to 212,750.

Initial Claims and 4-Week Average Initial unemployment claims data from the department of Labor, chart by Mish.Ignoring a couple of rounded spikes, initial claims have been remarkably steady.The same cannot be said for continued claims.Continued Claims

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 25 was 1,886,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,858,000 to 1,850,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,872,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,000 from 1,872,000 to 1,870,000.

Continued Claims and 4-Week Average Initial unemployment claims data from the department of Labor, chart by Mish.Combined PictureThe combined takeaway is that companies are not letting a lot of workers go, but when you do lose your jobs it is increasing harder to find a new one.Continued claims have held steady since mid-October. However, that is a mirage.Once a person uses all their benefits, they lose their unemployment benefits.Expiring Unemployment Benefits

Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify

Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.

Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.

Those are maximum benefits. People who have job-hopped don’t start out with 26 weeks of unemployment.So at a bare minimum, we need to think of continued claims plus those unemployed 27 weeks or longer.The 27+ weeks unemployment number is from the BLS monthly jobs report that comes out tomorrow.For December there were 1,551,000 people with 27+ weeks unemployment.I will update the monthly charts tomorrow, but preliminary data shows continued claims plus 27+ weeks unemployment has been steady as well.Net Negative Business CreationPlease consider The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation

The BLS BED report provides further confirmation the BLS Birth/Death jobs model is seriously screwed up.

Small businesses are struggling like mad. This is something the ADP reports also show.

ADP Total Employment by Employer Size
On February 5, 2025, I noted ADP Payrolls Better than Expected But Two-Thirds of the Economy Has Stalled

ADP reported a better than expected 183,000 jobs in January, but small business trends are unsettling.

Small and medium-sized businesses account for over 70 percent of all jobs. Growth has stalled. Most job creation is now from companies with 500 or more employees.For more details, click on the above link.More By This Author:December Had The Second Largest Monthly Trade Deficit In HistoryADP Payrolls Better Than Expected But Two-Thirds Of The Economy Has Stalled ISM Services Weakens, Respondents Show Tariff Concerns