Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of January 8
January 8
Consumer Credit – November
$19.0B
20.5
18.0
January 9
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – Dec
107.5
107.5
107.9
JOLTS – November
6.040
5.996
6.038
January 10
Export Prices – December
0.2%
0.5
0.3
Import Prices_ December
0.2
0.7
0.4
Wholesale Inventories – November
0.7%
0.7
0.7
January 11
Initial Unemployment Claims
240K
250
245
Producer Price Index – December
0.1%
0.4
0.2
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)
0.2
0.4
Treasury Budget – December
-$54.0B
-138.5
-32.0
January 12
Consumer Price Index – December
0.1%
0.4
0.1
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
0.2
Retail Sales – December
0.6%
0.8
0.5
Retail Sales, ex autos
0.5
1.0
0.4
Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline
0.6
0.8
0.5
Business Inventories – November
0.3%
-0.1
0.3
Week of January 15
January 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index – January
19.0
18.0
January 17
Industrial Production – December
0.3%
0.2
Capacity Utilization
77.3
77.1
Manufacturing
0.3
0.2
NAHB Index – January
72
74
January 18
Initial Unemployment Claims
Philadelphia Fed Index
23
26.2
Housing Starts – December
1.270K
1.297
Building Permits
1.300
1.298
January 19
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – January (p)
97.0
95.9
