Last year was an objectively bad year for American workers. The latest payroll figures from the BLS for December 2017 fill out what was an awful picture. According to its Establishment Survey, the data that’s taken as the definitive source on the US labor market, total payrolls expanded by 2.055 million in 2017.
That annual increase isn’t being lamented, however, it is widely celebrated as proof the economy is in good if not great shape – though much can depend on how you view the current occupant of the White House. The rough condition of the overall economy and its effect on jobs in America really has nothing to do with politics aside from bipartisan denial.
Last year was the worst year in payroll gains since 2010. Set aside all the highlights of that 2.1 million figure, what really matters is in percentage terms. The BLS estimates as of right now (benchmark revisions are coming for next month, FWIW) show that the level of overall employment increased 1.31% in 2017 over 2016 (December to December). To put that in perspective, the Establishment Survey gained 1.6% in 2011 despite a renewed breakout of near-panic in global markets, and has averaged 2.2% growth (non-recession years) going back to the fifties.
It is nothing like the labor market of the 1990’s and it’s not even close. Despite constant descriptions making it seem like the economy has reached positive circumstances similar to that period, to be at all comparable payrolls should have expanded by at least 3.5 million last year if not 3.75 million. At 2.1 million, again, we have to conclude the US economy remains in a very weak state. There really is no other legitimate interpretation.
The reason we have to conclude that is not due to one particular month of estimates, nor even those for a single year. The bad year in 2017 for the labor market is merely confirmation of what has been ongoing for a very long time, predating, even, the Great “Recession.”
