Industrial production rose a seemingly solid 0.9 percent in December until one looks at the details.
Industrial Production rose 0.9% in December topping the Econoday high estimate of 0.8%. The consensus estimate was 0.4%.
The good news pretty much stops there. Revisions took the November reading down from a reported 0.2% to -0.1%.
Another surge in mining and a bounce in utilities offset another disappointment for manufacturing to drive industrial production up 0.9 percent in December to just top Econoday’s high estimate. Mining production, up a year-on-year 11.5 percent, has been rising in large monthly clips including December at 1.6 percent. Utility production often swings month-to-month based on weather and rose 5.6 percent in December in contrast to the yearly change which is very modest at plus 1.8 percent.
Manufacturing volumes have also been very modest, at a monthly gain of only 0.1 percent and a year-on-year increase at a very modest 2.4 percent. But December’s details are surprisingly positive with vehicle production a highlight, up 2.0 percent in the month, and also selected hi-tech at a solid plus 0.4 percent. Non-durables declined 0.1 percent in the month while production of construction supplies, despite strength in other readings on the sector, was unchanged.
The lack of strength in manufacturing volumes in this report, which is produced by the Federal Reserve, has been a consistent surprise and stands out against factory orders data where year-on-year shipments and new orders growth, measured in dollar terms and produced by the Commerce Department, is in the mid-to-high single digits and, most importantly, is showing acceleration. Another report released by the Federal Reserve where flat is the direction and modest-to-moderate the theme is the Beige Book which will be posted this afternoon.
Fed Industrial Production Report
Let’s dive into the December Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for more details.
