In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. We looked at a few of these charts in this week’s Strategy Webinar and heading into next week, here are the key levels to consider.
DXY Weekly Chart
Notes: The index has held below slope resistance extending off the 2012 high for a third consecutive week and our outlook remains unchanged heading deeper into November trade. “The immediate advance remains vulnerable while below last week’s high with interim support seen at the 2016 low-week reversal close at 93.89– a break there would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term high is in place.”
Bottom line: Looking lower into next week with a break below the median-line / 52-week moving average needed to validate a reversal. A breach-higher above the parallel would shift the focus towards topside resistance objectives at 95.90 backed by the median-line (~95.58) and the 50% retracement / 52-week moving average at 97.42/60.
AUD/USD Weekly Chart
Notes: We’ve been tracking this key support confluence at 7630 for a few weeks now and Aussie has continues to hold above this threshold into the close of the week. We’re still looking for signs of basing here. A break lower would target critical support and broader bullish invalidation at 7476with breach above 7735needed to clear the way for a larger recovery.
Bottom line: The focus remains against this support level heading into next week and I’ll be looking for a final drop into 7476 OR a breach above 7735 to suggest that a near-term low is in place.
USD/CAD Weekly
Notes: Last month we highlighted a key resistance confluence with a topside breach risking, ‘a rally up towards the 50-line which converges on the 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1.2927.’ USDCAD rallied to a high of 1.2917 before turning over with the decline now approaching slope support / 200-week moving average around ~1.2530s. The focus is on this key threshold heading into next week with a break below the descending median-line (blue) needed to validate a larger scale reversal in the Loonie.
