Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s) have had a tough go of it in 2015. As the threat of higher short term rates looms overhead. I’m using the Vanguard REIT index fund (VNQ) in the chart above, which shows the prior retrace rallies have come in the vicinity of $7 off the lows.
Here at $77 we near the same length of the prior two rallies. So the question remains, will the third time be the charm?
This chart highlights the upcoming technical resistance points to watch. They come in at $78, $80, $81.50 and $85. I’m willing to conclude that a break above $78 would likely break the downtrend and give a real shot of testing $85, the highest of the resistance points left.
As with the major averages, there is still technical damage done that will likely not be reversed in one shot. It may take time to work itself out.
Of course a failure to break above $78 still means the downtrend remains fully intact. So this could be a pivotal point for a very popular asset class.
