■ S&P, Nasdaq, FTSE 100, DAX rally Thu-Fri, setting new all-time highs
■ May Nonfarm Payrolls fails to meet analyst 182K expectations, managing a meek 138K job gain
■ Markets still eye June 14th Fed hike
■ USD to devaluates 0.6% vs. EUR on Friday, 0.9% vs. JPY on lowered Fed policy outlook
■ Oil declines to USD 47.7 on indications for firming U.S. drilling
Reviewing solely the markets’ charts during the last week or so, one is likely to conclude that optimism is still the prevailing force in the market. The S&P 500, in particular, is up about 1.1% between Thursday and Friday, securing yet another all-time closing high of 2,439.07 points. High-tech equity saw an even brighter rise, with the Nasdaq adding 1.7% between Thursday and Friday, to… a new all-time high of 6,305.8 points. Similarly, new all-time highs were also recorded at the DAX, FTSE and many other indices.
Not all indications were positive though. In spite of analysts expecting a 182K gain on May’s Nonfarm Payrolls figure, the tier-1 labor market indicator only managed a 138K gain on Friday. The day’s data also saw average hourly earnings manage a 2.5% annual increase, failing to meet analyst expectations for a 2.6% gain. Unemployment did recede from 4.4% to 4.3%. However, the lackluster job gain figures conveyed the notion that the demand side of the labor market is just not strong enough, which could just mean that job candidates have a lower incentive to try and find a job in it.
The accommodative monetary policy exercised globally in recent years has certainly played a major role in bringing equity markets to where they are right now. Making it easier for companies to fund themselves is often regarded as the primary channel for this process. The general improvement of economic activity, however, also played a major role. Given aforementioned indices’ performance, momentum for equities was definitely positive this week. Considering the Nonfarm figures, however, the second channel is certainly losing steam.