May Jobs Report: Nothing More Nor Less Than A Decent Late Cycle Report


HEADLINES:

  • +138,000 jobs added
  • U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.4% to 4.3%
  • U6 underemployment rate down -0.2% from 8.6% to 8.4%
  • Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment:

    Wages and participation rates

  • Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: down -146,000 from 5.707 million to 5.561 million
  • Part time for economic reasons: down -53,000 from 5.272 million to 5.219 million
  • Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: down -0.2% from 78.6% to 78.4%
  • Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: up $.03 from $21.97 to $22.00,up +2.5% YoY.(Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
  • Holding Trump accountable on manufacturing and mining jobs

    Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs. Is he keeping this promise?

  • Manufacturing jobs fell by -1,000 for an average of +2500 vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of 10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.
  • Coal mining jobs rose by +400 for an average of +300 vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month
  • March was revised downward by -29,000. April was also revised downward by -37,000, for a net change of -66,000.

    The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed but on balance positive.

  • the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours.This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
  • construction jobs increased by +11,000. YoY construction jobs are up +191,000.
  • temporary jobs increased by +12,900.
  • the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -181,000 from 2,335,000 to 2,154,000.The post-recession low was set 18 months ago at 2,095,000.
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