While traders will be focused on the ECB, and Mario Draghi, early Thursday, it is unlikely that the European central bank will announce anything overly dramatic (see preview in a subsequent post), and instead the attention will be on the ECB’s inflation forecast for hints of when the ECB may accelerate tapering after its December 2016 QE cut, as Draghi scrambles to catch up with commodity inflation, if not so much core CPI, which has remained subdued.
CHART: Here’s how the past 6 #ECB forecasts compare with actual inflation. Expect 2017 to be revised upward today. https://t.co/Mmtkq1KS98 pic.twitter.com/XNVXCncvmH
— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) March 9, 2017
However, a more pressing development as US traders get to their desks today, will be the ongoing collapse in WTI, which after crashing 5.5% yesterday, has plunged as much as 3% this morning, sliding not only below $50 for the first time since December 1, but also dropped under $49, and was trading $48.90 at last check, as a near record number of net long spec positions suddenly rush to unwind their exposure.
The fact that yesterday the DOE reported that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by another +8.2m bbl to a record 528.4m bbl, will probably not help the selloff.
After resisting oil’s gravitational drag earlier, S&P futures snapped, and were trading lower by 0.2% at 2,357. Should the drop persist, this would be the longest losing streak for the index in five weeks.
Elsewhere, European and Asian stocks fell, ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its best back-to-back weeks since December, rising after yesterday’s blockbuster ADP report and expectations that tomorrow’s NFP will not derail the Fed’s March reta hike, the euro and yen dropped. Speaking of the ADP report, RBC chief economist Tom Porcelli said the report was so strong it meant the payrolls report on Friday would have to be unbelievably dire to deter the Fed from hiking next week.
“There is almost no number that would stop them,” said Porcelli. “It would take an extreme event for the Fed to take a pass at this point.”
Indeed, he noted the ADP surprise meant there was a real chance payrolls could beat expectations, perhaps by a lot. “On the face of it, ADP is consistent with private payrolls of about 340,000,” he said. The current median forecast is for a rise of 190,000.
With a hike seemingly certain, and more likely over the year, yields on two-year Treasury notes climbed to 1.378 percent, the highest since August 2009. 10Y yields rose for the 9th consecutive day as central banks dominated markets on Thursday. The US 2Y premium over German debt widened to 220 basis points, the largest gap since early 2000. That is a burden for the euro that is likely to only get heavier as the European Central Bank seems wedded to its super-easy policy.
Jumping across the Atlantic, investors are looking for signs of an end to European stimulus during today’s ECB announcement . While economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the ECB will reiterate that its monthly bond-buying program will run until at least December, traders will be on alert for a more hawkish tone from President Mario Draghi. Still, Draghi is expected to keep QE going at least until the end of the year with underlying price pressures muted. The ECB’s policy decision will be announced at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time and Draghi will hold a press conference 45 minutes later.
As Deutsche writes, it’s likely that the ECB meeting today contains a lot less drama. Nevertheless it does come at an interesting time what with the likely Fed rate hike next week and the surge in both the ADP and global bond yields yesterday. It’s probably far too early for the ECB to announce more tapering ahead especially given that we don’t start until next month. According to DB economists, the baseline of such a move is still 6 months away with the possibility of an earlier announcement in June. However they expect hints of a slow and gradual evolution to a less-dovish policy stance today. For example they could provide a less downbeat “balance of risks” to the economy, an adjustment to Forward Guidance to remove the option of reducing policy rates further and/or the removal of “very” from the statement that “a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is needed”.
“Despite the positive outlook, risks remained skewed to the downside for now,” Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity International, said in a note. “A Brexit related slowdown could spill over via trade links, with Germany being particularly vulnerable. The heavy political timetable, with Dutch elections later this month and French presidential elections” starting in April are also reasons for ECB caution, she said.
Looking at global markets, with energy stocks on the run, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.9 percent. Australia’s main index eased 0.4 percent, while its resource sector fell more than 2 percent. Bucking the trend, Japan’s export-heavy Nikkei managed to take heart from a softer yen and added 0.3%.
Economic data out of China continued to surprise with consumer inflation coming in well under expectations at an annual 0.8 percent, largely due to falling food prices. That however was offset by the highest PPI in 9 years, as wholesale prices surged 7.8%, higher than the 7.7% expected, the biggest jump since September 2008.
The strong dollar also pressured industrial metals which deepened their losses following louder Chinese jitters after the PBOC did not conduct a reverse repo, draining net liquidity for the 11th consecutive day, and leading to concern among traders that the central bank is real serious about tightening market conditions. Overnight everything fell,from iron ore to copper, which touched a seven-week trough. Gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,204.76 an ounce, declining for a fourth day.
