While technicals remain largely meaningless in the global centrally-planned “USSR market” (as penned by Russell Napier, who asked “Which World Has No Volume, No Volatility And Rising Prices?”, his answer: the USSR), pattern-seeking carbon-based traders still find refuge in the comfort provided by technical analysis. So for all those who believe past performance is indicative of future results, here according to Bank of America’s (BofA) MacNeil Curry is how various asset classes perform during Thanksgiving week compared to all other weeks during the year.
From BofA:
Thanksgiving seasonals
Many global markets behave differently during the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (observed Thursday Nov 27). While much has been written about U.S. equity market out-performance around this date; less has been written on other markets. We expand upon this analysis in our Chart Of The Week. During the week of Thanksgiving, Oil (Brent), Gold, U.S. ten year note futures and the U.S. $ all tend to do better than their weekly average, while €/$ tends to suffer. Given this backdrop, we look for the S&P 500 to extend upon last week’s break higher, while we reiterate our basing views on gold and oil. However, we are reluctant to turn too bearish on €/$. Not only does sentiment and momentum remain at bearish extremes, but the month of December is its most bullish month of the year. As such, the risk of a €/$ bear trap is too high to ignore.
Chart of the week: Thanksgiving seasonal tear sheet
Historically, many global markets have behaved differently during the week surrounding the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Over the past 20 yrs the S&P 500, Brent Crude Oil, Gold, U.S. 10 yr note futures, and the U.S. $ Index have all done better than average, while €/$ have under-performed. In contrast, Thanksgiving has had relatively little effect on $/¥.
And that last sentence is why the entire chart shown above is worthless, because if there is one asset class that is virtually assured to have the highest volatility in the coming days, it is the Yen, which will either continues its unprecedented collapse, or soar higher on short covering, should the trek to 120 (and then 145) prove to be fleeting in the immediate future.
