Sometimes, what catches the eye is the reflection rather than the thing itself.
For quite some time, the thing itself has had enough shine to superficially attract onlookers.
However, with the 5th day in a row of declines in the Russell 2000, many investors begin to look beyond the shine to the reflections.
The Economic Modern Family holds up shiny objects to a mirror. When they all see the same luster, the optimisim of that shared vision is palpable.
When reflection overrules luster, each member responds to the visage subjectively.
Hence, the Russell 2000 entered an unconfirmed Warning Phase. Not surprising considering that Transportation sits close to its 50 DMA. Granny Retail bounced off the new 2017 low it made yesterday, but with noticeably less daily volume than its average.
Regional Banks, even with the better-than-expected weekly jobs claim report and higher interest rate yields, did little to wow.
And Biotechnology sucked back in speculators with its moderate shine. Yet, IBB could not clear the pivotal price point of $300.
Through it all, the quintessential shiny objects, gold and silver, appear tarnished at first glance.
However, if we look deeper, are tarnished metals hiding a much glossier reflection?
Gold has fallen out of favor for two fundamental reasons. First, the prospect of higher rates. Secondly, the decline of several commodity prices and skepticism regarding inflation.
Technically, GLD or the gold ETF has my interest more now that it had throughout February’s rally.
The price sits on a key monthly moving average. On the weekly chart, the downside risk appears limited. On the daily chart, GLD hugs the 50 DMA.
How about the influencers?
Interest Rates, or the 20+ Year Treasury Bonds, approach last December lows. Nevertheless, even if rates rise, let’s look not at the superficial shine but rather the reflection.
Does that seal the fate of rising inflation?
Whereas Silver has outshone Gold this year, I now wonder for how much longer?
