It’s risk-parity heaven right now, notes RBC’s head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott, with global equities (developed and EM) AND fixed-income all continuing their torrid rallies, but McElligott warns this is a classic “from worst to first” PM-grabbing into a new “Fear Of Missing Out” stage of the equities-rally.
Bonds remain well-bid on account of the ongoing ‘slowing into tightening’ narrative, with commodities being the only asset class (outside of volatility, of course) that is lower overnight as a ‘signal’ for the lower bond yields.This continues to be “falling inflation expectations” story for rates / bonds: industrial metals continue their struggles (Chinese / PBoC deleveraging efforts, while recent efforts at STRENGTHENING yuan to stem FX outflows will FURTHER FEED global disinflation in coming months) in conjunction with Crude’s inability to get off the mat post disappointing OPEC (market still focusing on US shale supply–especially now, with the thinking post Trump’s Paris Accord drop-out that we’ll see even MORE US oil supply via increased drilling / deregulation).
#FOMOROTATION: But today is largely an equities-centric story, as stocks can of course view the world in a ‘mutually-exclusive’ fashion from the aforementioned fixed-income ‘slowing growth’ concerns. A goldilocks interpretation of ‘easier financial conditions’ (weaker USD and lower US rates / flatter curves are a POSITIVE for large cap US corporates) against still-expansive data (yesterday’s US ADP print portending + for NFP) keeps stocks in a very ‘sweet spot,’ especially as the world is still awash in liquidity despite the ‘coming’ pivot tighter.To this point, EPFR data last night showed us that cash continues to be deployed in both equities (+$13.7B inflow in global Eq funds, a five week high absolute $ number) and bonds (+$6B inflow) as well. It seems like investors are appropriately taking their cues from very recent CB messaging: cautiously ‘slow and steady’ tightening in light of recently ‘softer’ inflation data.
Again, all of my conversations yesterday were centered around stocks and the ‘rotation’ being evidenced.Remember this from my note Wednesday?:
