The good news is:
All of the major indices except the Nasdaq composite (OTC) hit all time highs last Thursday.
The Negatives
The market is overbought.
Seasonality for the next 2 weeks is negative.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
The new high for the SPX was unconfirmed by NY NH.
Notice how the SPX has gone ballistic in the past week or so.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated using Nasdaq data.
The pattern is similar to the chart above.
The Positives
52 week new lows have all but disappeared. NYSE new lows declined last Friday in spite of all of the indices going down.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.
OTC HL Ratio at 81% is very strong.
The next chart is similar to the one above one except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio finished the week at a very strong 84%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of December during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2016 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2016. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953, the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been mixed and much weaker during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle than other years. The OTC has not been up the coming week during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle since 1985.
