Alarm Bells are ringing everywhere in the hedge fund industry.
The problem is that no one seems to hear them.
Liquidity, Liquidity, liquidity.
That’s all you need to know about this market.
Chaos in Washington doesn’t count.
The economy doesn’t count.
Geopolitics don’t count.
Even the weather doesn’t count, unless you’re a long suffering, but recently happy owner of corn, wheat, soybeans, or the (DBA).
The relentless rise in share prices is starting to resemble price action last seen during the Dotcom bubble.
My friend, Fed governor Janet Yellen was a relentless co-conspirator in this most recent move, hinting, again, that interest rates will stay lower for longer, thanks to Amazon inspired deflation.
Traditional brick and mortar stores are now closing so fast that you have to check if they are still in business before you go shopping, as happened to me last weekend.
Yes, there are no more Desigual stores in San Francisco.
So, prospect of another rate rise in September has thus been firmly taken off the table.
The only consolation is that my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is finally, finally starting to edge off of neutral, where it has lived for two months, nd is starting to move into short selling territory with a reading of 64.
Predictions of imminent doom are breaking out like acne at a high school prom.
I refer below to two charts.
One, The “Buffett Index” shows that share prices as a percentage of GDP are approaching highs only seen twice in the last century (1929 and 1999).
The Oracle of Omaha has gotten so nervous about elevated share prices that he has most ceased buying them in the public, preferring to focus on direct takeovers, where better value is found.
The second shows that commodity prices relative to stock prices are at 50-year lows.
If you look at all “RISK OFF” assets, like precious metals (GLD), (SLV), energy (USO), bonds (TLT), they have all been universally pummeled in recent months.
