Econintersect‘s analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales improved compared to the previous month. However the current dollar values are in contraction year-over-year while the inflation adjusted values are in expansion. The inventory-to-sales ratios improved but are still at recessionary levels.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.1% month-over-month, and down 0.8% year-over-year
unadjusted sales (inflation adjusted) up 0.8% year-over-year
unadjusted sales three month rolling average compared to the rolling average 1 year ago decelerated 1.4% month-over-month, and is down 1.6% year-over-year.
Unadjusted Business Sales – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted but Inflation Adjusted (red line), and 3 month rolling Average (yellow line)
unadjusted business inventories growth decelerated 0.4% month-over-month (up 2.8% year-over-year with the three month rolling averages decelerating), and the inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.32 which is at recessionary levels (well above average for Januarys). However, these ratios may be distorting the real picture as inventory values may not be properly revalued for inflation.
US Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales up 0.4% month-over-month, down 2.1 % year-over-year
seasonally adjusted inventories were up 0.1% month-over-month (up 2.9% year-over-year), inventory-to-sales ratios were up from 1.30 one year ago – and are now 1.36.
market expectations were for inventory growth of 0.1 % to 0.5 % (consensus 0.2%) versus the actual of 0.1%.
The way data is released, differences between the business releases pumped out by the U.S. Census Bureau are not easy to understand with a quick reading. The entire story does not come together until the Business Sales Report (this report) comes out. At this point, a coherent and complete business contribution to the economy can be understood.
