This short paper is an upgrading of a document that I published about three years ago. I am resorting to this because of the extreme amount of criticism I received for that contribution, while my present work on the nuclear future is largely overlooked by members of the anti-nuclear booster club. This is almost certainly because where Germany and nuclear are concerned, the outcome of the Energiwende (= Energy Transition) has become embarrassingly clear: that exercise is not running on empty, but is going nowhere on a full tank of optimism and subsidies. Moreover, sooner or later Germany will revert to actions that by mid-century could make them the most energy intensive country in the world, although they might have to share the leadership with Japan.
Before commencing however, I would like to assure my future students that they have every right to dislike nuclear, and surprisingly uncompromising dislike is easy to find in my earlier articles, lectures and books. The dilemma where I am concerned has to do with the preposterous notion that wind and solar based energy can completely replace nuclear, where by “replace” I mean supply the electricity necessary to maintain the present or an improved standard of living. In Germany the argument that this is true was put forward in order to obtain votes, but when the price of oil begins a new escalation, and the international macro-economy once again reels under a dose of unemployment and uncertainty, that silly myth will be exposed.
THE MESSAGE.
Lets start with the bottom line, or what I usually call ‘The Message:’
While Germany might temporarily abandon nuclear facilities located there, they will never cease trying to obtain reliable electric power generated elsewhere — at least as long as German voters want to continue enjoying the present level of prosperity. Put another way, for every kilowatt-hour (kWh) of nuclear-based power lost because of temporary nuclear closures that might take place in that most important European economy, another kWh will probably be obtained from somewhere else in Europe, regardless of how it is generated. What has never been understood is that the most important replacement for German nuclear is not solar or wind, but electricity imported from Sweden or Belgium or France or any country too careless to place a heavy tax on their energy exports..
