Is the rate hike coming on March 15th already priced in? That is the view from Barclays:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
We see limited scope for the USD to continue going up this week, as markets are already largely pricing in a March hike. Fed fund futures discount a 90% probability of a 25bp hike and 65bp for the remainder of the year, something that looks fair to us, given our expectation of monetary policy.
In this regard, it seems that the USD may trade sideways as the next FOMC meeting approaches. More important will be expectations of trade policy in the US. Although rhetoric on tariffs has lost some steam recently, the implementation of a Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) cannot be ruled out.
Although there seems to be some disagreement among Trump’s cabinet, as Gary Cohn opposes the implementation of a BAT, while Wilbur Ross recently supported one, arguing its revenue-enhancing nature, it is important to take the talks seriously, as they could induce higher volatility in FX markets in the months to come.
