Euro Tumbles, Bunds Spike On Report ECB “Growing Worried” About Strong Currency


It’s time to start worrying about currency wars again.

Moments ago, with the EURUSD trading just shy of 1.19 and having risen above the “red line in the sand for corporate profits” 1.20 mark earlier in the week, the ECB again used its favorite trial balloon news service, Reuters, to suggest that not only is Draghi not in any rush to announce tapering (or tightening) of the European central bank’s QE and/or NIRP (something last week’s Jackson Hole confirmed all too well), but that with a growing number of ECB policymakers worried about the strong Euro, there is an increasing chance of a “more gradual exit” from asset purchases, Reuters reported:

  • EURO CONCERNS INCREASE CHANCE OF DELAY IN QE DECISION, OR A MORE GRADUAL EXIT FROM ASSET PURCHASES: RTRS
  • STRONG EURO IS WORRYING A GROWING NUMBER OF ECB POLICYMAKERS: RTRS
  • Some more details from Reuters:

    Rapid gains by the euro against the dollar are worrying a growing number of policymakers at the ECB, raising the chance its asset purchases will be phased out only slowly, three sources familiar with discussions told Reuters. The scheme is due to expire at the end of 2017 but formal talks over its future are only beginning, meaning the European Central Bank is highly unlikely to take any decision at next Thursday’s rate meeting, the sources said.

    Pressure is building for a gentle rather than a rapid reduction in the pace of asset buying from some policymakers, particularly in the bloc’s weaker economies, who are concerned that the strong euro could dampen inflation and hamper growth by making exports dearer, the sources said.

    “The exchange rate has become a bigger issue,” one of the sources told Reuters. “It is now less favorable for an exit and a stronger argument for a muddle-through option.”

    As the ECB prepares for what is its biggest policy decision in years, the worries over the euro show just how far it remains from achieving its goal of integrating the currency zone’s stubbornly divergent economies.

    Germany and Northern Europe are ready to dial back monetary stimulus as their growth rates pick up, just as southern nations take on the added burden of uncompetitive exports on top of high unemployment. The debate also exposes the dilemma the ECB faces in trying to reconcile robust GDP growth with inflation — which edged up across the euro zone to 1.5 percent in August — expected to undershoot its target for years.

    “The huge appreciation in the euro is already causing monetary tightening and is equivalent to an increase in interest rates,” another source said.

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