However, it’s also been a long time since the Dow Jones has seen a double-digit advance. Not unexpectedly, the Dow Jones made new all-time highs on the last three trading days of the week. The number of BEV Zeros the Dow has made since the November election increases weekly. Since the elections, there have been 169 NYSE trading sessions, of which 42 (25% or 1 in 4) have seen the Dow Jones close at a new all-time high. Looking at all the BEV Zeros in the plot below, since last October, it’s been a hot market.
This won’t go on forever, and the market may be more than just a little shocked when it realizes that it takes a 1,082 point decline before the Dow Jones corrects just 5%.
Look at the table below. It takes a 2,164 point decline before the Dow Jones sees a double digit correction. That will freak out everyone at CNBC. But what’s freaking me out is that the Dow Jones now finds itself at the doorstep of breaking above 22,000.
The Dow Jones step sum chart below looks very positive. Since March, its step sum has fallen behind the rising price plot, creating a bull box. Now it appears the step sum (market sentiment) is once again becoming as positive as the Dow Jones’ rising price plot. Just looking at what I see below, I expect the daily advances for the Dow Jones to begin overwhelming the daily declines in the weeks ahead of us (a rising step sum plot). That will close the bull box and should give the Dow Jones a nice little boost upward as this happens.
But after it does, what then? It’s too early for us to think of that. Let’s see how far above 22,000 the Dow Jones can go before it tops out.
It’s not just the Dow Jones that’s been making history since the November elections. The other major indexes are doing very well too. At the close of this week’s trading, twelve of the major market indexes I follow also closed at new all-time highs, and most of the rest are just a whisker from making one. But the gains seen in the past two years are less than I’d expected. Maybe we shouldn’t read too much into that as the only important point to make of this data is that these indexes are going up.
