USD/JPY finds itself in a precarious position. While the pair remains in an uptrend it is coming dangerously close to forming a double top at the 114.50 barriers unless it can get push higher from buyers to clear the key 115.00 resistance level.
Testimony from Janet Yellen today was inconclusive as she failed to offer any fresh reasons to be hawkish and mainly stuck to familiar themes of gradual tightening. Investors have been skeptical of the Fed’s US growth scenario — none more so than the bond market where yields have been drifting towards yearly lows. One nagging doubt of fixed income traders is the strength of the US consumer.
Despite tight labor markets, wage growth and spending have been lackluster with Retail Sales missing their mark 4 out of the past 6 months. That’s why tomorrow’s Retail Sales data could be key to the USD/JPY rally. The markets are looking for a rebound of 0.4% from the prior month’s data of 0.0%. Any beat to the upside could infuse the USD/JPY with fresh enthusiasm and propel the pair towards the 115.00 mark. But if the data misses once again the prospect of a double top becomes increasingly real.
