Antsy trepidation aptly describes the week just past, as markets were for the most part trying to anticipate the implications of everything forthcoming in a monetary and economic sense; while fending off softer oil and ‘bubble’ talk from some of the normally sanguine strategists (who mostly missed the Trump post-election rally). Lots of oscillations; and finishes still on hold.
It’s been a market that concurrently seemed both to eliminate some bulls by virtue of the torrent of bearish proclamations; although on-balance buying in equities primarily via ETF’s, offset reported ‘high wealth’ client selling by two of the major institutions. Concurrently overbought technicals, while clearly remaining nervous, took the edge of the extremes by consolidating decently in the 10 days since President Trump’s speech resulted in a blow-off spike.
That it failed to ‘really’ break down, given oil’s weakness, is a favorable sign few wish to acknowledge. Sure, we’re talking correction risk; but not shorting the market and glad we haven’t through several weeks of slight distribution by many investors, although figures now show that on-balance ETF buying offset most of that selling (again outside of oils and a few areas).
Daily action has generally meandered in a slightly lower ‘range’ of March S&P 2360-80 during the week just past. It’s basically on hold ahead of quite a series of events ahead, a few of which portend relief, or greater concern.
And even there much is subjective. For instance, many fear a slightly higher rate move (which is likely) from the Fed; whereas I view a hike as likely just a point to get past; then more likely a relief rally (a hike being priced into the stock market already). Furthermore, you have several European central banks meeting so their moves and statements will matter as well as ours. A Bank of England meeting will be the one most watched. No issue from these meetings really for our markets, as of now.
