Recently the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released inflation figures for February. Being a statistics geek, I immediately went to the source data and combed through the figures.
As I looked through the numbers, from the single reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), all the way through the individual price changes, I found myself wondering what it all means.
I understand the data and have analyzed it for almost two decades. But does this report give us any useful information at all? Or is it so divorced from reality that we should just junk the whole thing and start over?
The more I dug into the numbers, the less useful they became.
At first glance, it looked like prices were dropping. The headline number, which bundles everything together, was down 0.2% last month, and was up a meager 1.0% compared with last year.
But economists, including Federal Reserve members, don’t look at the overall number. They strip out the volatile sectors of food and energy so they can focus on the “core” areas where people spend their money every month.
While this is idiotic – since all of us must purchase food and energy to survive – and the price changes in those two categories are critical, let’s keep up the charade and look at other areas of note.
If we didn’t eat anything in February, and didn’t drive (or turn on the electricity or heat), then inflation ticked up 0.3% last month, and was up 2.3% over February of last year. That’s a big difference! We went from severely undershooting the Fed’s target of 2%, to overshooting it.
While energy prices are dragging inflation lower, the cost of shelter is pushing inflation higher. The cost of shelter was up 0.3% last month, and up 3.3% for the year. This category has an enormous effect on the inflation rate because it counts for 33% of all spending.
And that’s where my problems start.
Do Americans spend an average of 33% on shelter, both for their homes and vacation stays? That seems unlikely.
