On April 4th I asked, “Is Wall Street the New Sesame Street?”
At the time, we surmised that Elmo is a worried Nasdaq and Abby with the lower position on the seesaw, is a cautious Modern Family.
With Earnings Season upon us, we may finally get the answers to the questions:
Will QQQs and the FANG stocks hold up? And, if they gain weight, could that give the Modern Family more leverage to rise or more reasons to fall harder?
This week began with an inside trading day in many instruments. That makes last Thursday’s trading range important.
Ordinarily, inside days indicate a pause by traders as they ponder the market’s next direction.
Today’s inside day is particularly noteworthy.
Today’s trading range inside last Thursday’s trading range also sits below the 50-daily moving averages in the Russell 2000. In Nasdaq, the price holds above the 50 DMA.
Mr. Potato Head, dressed as a pirate with one good hand and one replaced by a sword, may hold the market’s fate in his hand.
Will Mr. Pirate Potato Head give Nasdaq and the Modern Family a thumb’s up or a thumb’s down?
Going into this week, not one member of the Modern Family is in a Bullish Phase.
The Russell 2000, ended last week on its lows and in a warning phase.
Retail (XRT), unless it clears 42.50, the 50-DMA, may have formed a new top.
Semiconductors (SMH), in a warning phase for the first time since June 2016, traded in line with the Family and posted an inside day below the 50-DMA.
Regional Banks (KRE), was the lone exception to the inside day. KRE broke below last Thursday’s low but came back strong ending the session on its intraday highs. However, way more work is needed to get this even close to the overhead 50 DMA.
Biotechnology (IBB), disappointed. It too had an inside day under the 50 DMA. However, we hoped to see it take a leadership role and gather enough velocity to clear its 50-DMA.
Nevertheless, the whole point of noting these inside days is that should last Thursday’s high clear, IBB can still be the first one in the family to recapture a bullish phase.
