This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating across a wide array of markets for months now. And this trend has not let up in recent months, despite the Fed’s optimism about labor markets. The big outlier is consumer lending.
Charts on the relevant categories are below.
Why it matters: The economy is not necessarily accelerating, despite the Fed’s rate hikes. Credit growth is a key determinant of economic growth because spending on credit adds incrementally to GDP growth. Decelerating credit growth outside of consumer areas could be a warning sign for the US economy.
