As if you need more proof that inflation is finally starting to pick up, lumber prices rose to a 12-year high last week, supported mainly by expectations that steep duties will soon be levied on cheap softwood imports from Canada. Lumber futures rose to nearly $415 per thousand board feet last Monday, a level unseen since March 2005, soon after homeownership peaked here in the U.S.
At issue is a mini-trade war between U.S. and Canadian loggers. For some time now, the American lumber industry has blamed its Canadian counterpart of unfairly dumping lumber in the U.S. that’s far below market value. Now, several factors are pushing timber prices higher. Chief among them are the likelihood of duties being raised at the Canadian border, possibly as early as next month; President Donald Trump’s calls to renegotiate NAFTA; and growing demand for new homes following the housing crisis as consumer optimism improves and millennial buyers finally seem eager to enter the market.
Shares of Canfor Corporation and Western Forest Products, Canada’s number two and number five lumber producers by annual output, have had a good three months, advancing 25.5 percent and 16.8 percent respectively as of April 12. Timberland-owner Weyerhaeuser has also impressed lately.
Gold Glimmers Brightly
As I told Daniela Cambone during last week’s edition of Gold Game Film, this is all very constructive for the price of gold, which has historically been used as a hedge during periods of rising inflation. The yellow metal closed above $1,270 an ounce last week for the first time since soon after the November presidential election. A “golden cross” has not yet occurred, with the 50-day moving average still below the 200-day, but such a move appears likely in the next few trading sessions if upward momentum can be sustained.
Fueled also by geopolitical tensions associated with Syria, Russia and North Korea, gold demand is on the rise, with last Tuesday’s trading volumes on gold calls surging 10 times Monday’s amount on the New York Mercantile Exchange. As I already shared with you, investor sentiment of gold during the recent European Gold Forum was particularly strong. A poll taken during the conference showed that 85 percent of attendees were bullish on the metal, with a forecast of $1,495 by year’s end.
