EC Is America’s Economy Shooting Blanks?


It always helps to make a good first impression, especially to the father of the girl you’d like to date. An impressive resume can do the trick. That was certainly the case in the 1997 dark humor classic Grosse Pointe Blank. If you don’t happen to recall the exchange between John Cusack’s character, Martin Q. Blank, and the father of the girl he wanted to date, here’s a refresher:

Mr. Newberry:

“What have you been doing with your life?”

Martin:

“Uh…professional killer.”

Mr. Newberry:

“Oh! Good for you, it’s a …growth industry.”

If only our economy had more growth industries. We’ve just learned that the economy grew by 1.4 percent in the final three months of last year. The sad thing is that’s a vast improvement over the last figure we had in hand of 1.0 percent. For the full year, the economy grew at a 2.4 percent rate, the same paltry pace it has since the recession ended in 2009.

As for the sole source of support of late? That would be the U.S. consumer, without which math tells us the entire world economy would be in recession, not just the United States. In the fourth quarter in particular, spending was buoyed by gains in Transportation and Recreational services.

Sound familiar? It should.

Cars have literally been driving the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the collapse in the energy industry which took high-paying jobs down with it. To be specific, car sales to marginal buyers who cannot afford the payment for very long have pushed car sales to record levels.

If you’re hoping this economic prop is sustainable, and you should be given the alternative, you’re apt to be disappointed. A recent Bloomberg story shed light on how sales have been turbocharged. As was the case with subprime mortgage lending which pushed homeownership to record levels, new car-financing entrants have been responsible for record car sales.

According to J.P. Morgan Chase calculations, among subprime lenders that tap the securitization market to in turn finance their operations, new entrants now account for 28 percent of the business, multiples of the single-digit market share they had between 2011 and 2013. That makes these corporate whippersnappers the biggest players in the market. Their secret weapon? That would be ridiculously lax underwriting standards to qualify unqualified buyers.

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