The chart below shows that selling pressure is starting to develop again based on the increase in the number of new 52-week lows.
The cumulative advance/declines are pointing lower again too.
I think we all expected some back and fill. Prices will probably bounce around in this range for awhile.
Rates
Below is my spreadsheet of the ETFs that I monitor, and their associated relative strength scores from ETFScreen.com.
These rate-averse ETFs are clearly skewed left meaning that as rates rise, these ETFs struggle. The weakness here helps confirm an environment of gradually rising rates (not that we needed much confirmation).
However, keep in mind that consensus is overwhelming negative towards fixed income, and that is often when you get surprises, at least in the short-term.
Treasuries have sold off as rates have been rising, but I think it is interesting that this ETF is still above the lows of a year ago. I think we may be ready for a short-term bounce higher for fixed income prices.
This is a very long-term chart. The 30Y Treasury Bond price is breaking down (yields up, prices down). Prices recently broke important support, and are now just below the 100-month trend. This chart is bearish towards bonds, longer-term, but it is too soon to say that the bond bull market that started in the early 1980’s is over.
Outlook Summary:
Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the 300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.
Something else to consider is the Mueller investigation. I worry that the headlines generated by the investigation may rattle the markets more than people are currently anticipating. If Mueller-related headlines get closer to the White House, then they would probably hurt stocks and help bonds.
