1. Market Update
Gold is getting weaker. With today’s reversal the weekly chart is likely going to lose its embedded slow stochastic. Finally! This trend-reinforcing special set up has been in place since early February. Without the embedded stochastic Gold would become very overbought on the weekly chart. But this does not mean that prices have to immediately roll over. More likely will be a continuation of the volatile consolidation between $1,200 and $1,280 with a final pullback towards the 200MA. The outlook for gold remains cautious for the next couple of weeks and months. But in the bigger picture it is very likely on its way towards $1,500 and should start moving again in early summer. Don’t short it but stay at the sidelines and wait for the dips.
The stock markets instead are right in front of their best month of the year. But the small speculators do not trust the recent rally and continue to hold an unusual high short position. With that type of sentiment stocks should do well during April.
Bitcoin finally struggles to break through the downtrend-line. A pullback towards its 200MA might be on the way already and could bring another chance to buy the digital currency on lower levels.
With the new portfolio & watchlist I want to help you in understanding that the outcome of the next trade is always random. But the occurrences of our edge over a series of trades and investments is what makes us consistent and profitable.
2. Bitcoin slightly shifting to more consolidation/correction
Unfortunately Bitcoin does not look too convincing here anymore. Since the top in early November Bitcoin has failed five times to push through the falling downtrend-line. Instead the green uptrend-line has been basically broken but prices are still oscillating around the 50MA ($415).
The Stochastic comes with a new sell signal while the MACD is neutral. The logical target for a pullback would be the 200MA ($364) which is about 12.2% away.
